ES Journal - 2019/2020

[mbondy]

Poetic.

I tend to agree Mick. Why did Powell make it a point to say he wasn't raising rates in 2019? From two to zero? Hmmm.

There must be something they see. By all rights he should have left at least one hike on the table. I mean come on, all you hear about is how great everything is. That's when you need to raise rates right? Get more dry powder for the next downturn.

I'm no economist, but his about face should be getting more press from the "experts". Something's got him spooked. But again... I'm no economist.

The Fed is still running off their balance sheet at almost 50billion/month, so I'd say Powell is making a concession on rates to do what he thinks is more urgent; and he can do it in the background where no one is paying attention because everyone is staring at interest rates.

I'm expecting the market to float here a bit and hold its own for another week or two and then with earnings season will come volatility.

 

[NQurious]

Imo, gap down probably won't fill anytime today, trend day down with RTH open near the HOD and close nearer the LOD. My plan, if such develops, is to sell the bounces on the way down. Bounces, if any, at 2808.5 and 2792 should be watched as the strength, weakness, etc will indicate the character of the decline (simple pullback, brief selling panic, etc.) If panic start to larger retracement, could see close to -100 ES and close to -300 NQ from Globex high to RTH close, imo.

Of note: Last night's high was the HWB of the post-Fed rally collapse.

 

[NQurious]

Of note: Last night's high was the HWB of the post-Fed rally collapse.

That short from 36 would give targets of 16.50, 12.75, and 6.50 ... below 6.50 and odds of trend day down no gap fill increase exponentially.

 

[glazier]

Stopped -2 at 2814
Probably switch to shorts now which is when it will put in a monster rally lol, but what will be will be.

 

[NQurious]

Probably switch to shorts now which is when it will put in a monster rally lol, but what will be will be.

We're still close to the top of a rally, so this could just be another 3 to 5 day consolidation. I'm always ready to trade both sides when day trading. I just look to find the path of least resistance. That has been up for so long the change can sometimes take us unawares - especially when reading a journal where every other post some days is someone calling yet another top lol ... Good luck today

 

[glazier]

not loving the way they got me out at the exact low ,lol! haha. Amazing how that happens so often.
Waiting for a short setup for now.
Good luck NQurious et al

 

[NQurious]

not loving the way they got me out at the exact low ,lol! haha. Amazing how that happens so often.

It does happen where what appears to be the most sensible stop placement is often the most sensible place to establish the very same position that just got stopped. I believe the very thing happened to me yesterday on one of the two longs I posted here. In the end we it's just another trade. Get on to the next and remember it isn't too difficult to make 4 points a day on average, and at 4 points with just a bit of size, life is good, right?

20.50 which is trading as I type this is HWB from the last bounce to the low.

 

[glazier]

SS 2820
4 point stop

 

[NQurious]

20.50 which is trading as I type this is HWB from the last bounce to the low.

Imo, the HWB's should hold and should offer short the bounce opportunities if this decline is to have any legs. NQ didn't make it HWB and might squeeze at the bell to 7394's.

 

[glazier]

it isn't too difficult to make 4 points a day on average, .

Easier to lose 4 points per day on average