ES Journal - 2019/2020

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how do you know it's not a reversal?

You don't ... but if you define an attempt to reverse, and then track such attempts, you'd find most of them fail to follow through. The odds favor the reversal attempt is simply a pullback and that the prior trend will continue ... until it doesn't. That's how you know it's a reversal ;)
 
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Excellent gap fill at @Buy1Sell2 's non-existent gap today. :)

Not trading today and just taking a brief look now, but as long as we stay below 40 for the rest of the session and don't make new highs, odds favour a close below 30 today.

What this means in practice is that I would take the next good short signal if and when it comes for a ride to 30 or lower.
 
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