ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Order placed to cover at 2814.00
Intraday bull, outraday bear?
Covered 2818.25 for gain of 4.75 pts
Not a chance we'll sell off today. At least if a sell off means making new lows. This day structure is trading 101 and easily recognized as one with shallow counter trend moves where the market reverses to new highs just as early shorts start to salivate on their perceived profits.
If a sell is coming on the daily it will be some other day...
In my humble opinion of course.
Nailed it. Even though we did make more than a shallow pullback.
This post was for some reason quoted with a song by @volente_00 which I didn't understand, but I'll play the quote game and respond back with this.
Last week we had 5 negative closes for the entire week. This haven't happened so many times in the last few years.
Based on this and some additional analysis, I predict tomorrow (Monday) having a positive close on the day, i.e., above 2743,25. A large gap down open might void this call, but I don't think that'll happen either.
Main bias for now.
Continuing this call - I think we'll see at least 2 consecutive positive closes for the next two following days and most likely trade above 2820 by end of week.
I am not trading this call as I'm strictly day trading, but I'd like to practice my prediction skills over a longer time horizon also.
I want to follow up this call initially posted on Sunday and updated Monday night.
My data suggests a good chance we'll see 4 consecutive positive closes with a positive close tomorrow also (Thursday). In fact, the most bullish scenario suggests 5 consecutive positive closes for the entire week. The more neutral scenario suggests consolidation on Thursday and Friday, but none of my matching data suggest we'll see a sell-off this week.
The market may want to take care of business below eventually, but I'm sticking my neck out here and saying I don't think that will happen this week.
Looking at what transpired after I left gives me a head shaking case of shouldawouldacoulda's for sure.
I certainly shouldawouldacoulda preserved more of that 6.25 point profit than one measly tick lol (typically I close these before I head out, and then I come home to find I shouldawouldacoulda held to my profit target, so this time, I'm gonna fool 'em
- fool me once shame on you, fool me twice .... I'm a meathead 
). And that pullback to 13.75 was a buy limit I had cancelled (order was 14.50) .
Umphfff ... that's it for me .... no more kids after this one lol
Here is my view: That pullback set up a buy that should target today's HOD then up to 2840 or so. On the bear side, I'd say a breakout with follow through below 2812 will target yesterday's high 2803.25 or the gap at 2797.25.
I'm still long from 2756.75 with a break even stop in the market but any breakout with follow through below 2780 gets my attention.
2726.50 ESM low to 2826.50 ESM high for a cool hundred points - I should have noted that and closed that last long day trade there today but somehow playing with you guys I got distracted and didn't follow my notes.
Market does funny things like that sometimes - like how on 3/12/2018 cash closed at 2783 and on 3/11/2019 cash closed at 2783 marking a one year period of an exactly flat market (save for the pennies, but who here is counting pennies?)
I certainly shouldawouldacoulda preserved more of that 6.25 point profit than one measly tick lol (typically I close these before I head out, and then I come home to find I shouldawouldacoulda held to my profit target, so this time, I'm gonna fool 'em
- fool me once shame on you, fool me twice .... I'm a meathead ). And that pullback to 13.75 was a buy limit I had cancelled (order was 14.50) .Umphfff ... that's it for me .... no more kids after this one lol
Here is my view: That pullback set up a buy that should target today's HOD then up to 2840 or so. On the bear side, I'd say a breakout with follow through below 2812 will target yesterday's high 2803.25 or the gap at 2797.25.
I'm still long from 2756.75 with a break even stop in the market but any breakout with follow through below 2780 gets my attention.
2726.50 ESM low to 2826.50 ESM high for a cool hundred points - I should have noted that and closed that last long day trade there today but somehow playing with you guys I got distracted and didn't follow my notes.
Market does funny things like that sometimes - like how on 3/12/2018 cash closed at 2783 and on 3/11/2019 cash closed at 2783 marking a one year period of an exactly flat market (save for the pennies, but who here is counting pennies?)
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