ES Journal - 2019/2020

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A few different perspectives, let's see how the week progresses folks. Good luck!
 
Laissez Faire said:
If you don't have a bias or outlook for future price development
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I do not think "bias" and "outlook" mean quite the same thing. When I read the post that "bad idea to have a bias at all" I agreed.

When I think of a "bias," I think of a belief or tendency that one would be little inclined to give up. An "outlook" on the other hand is simply the judgement that one direction is more likely than another.

My outlook on Thursday morning was that the market would bottom and perhaps begin a large rally. I was wrong, and most of my trades Thursday turned out to be shorts. I had an outlook that the market proved wrong. I've seen traders with "biases" buy a market all the way down.

In the end, no big deal, as each to his own for all I care. But to be fair to @fordewind I do not think that what was being suggested was that the trader remain clueless, but rather than it is a bad idea to adopt such a strong belief that one thing will happen that one ignores any and all evidence to the contrary.
 
Base line would be a great substitute to the bias.But still a base line is not for trading.I`m just tracking my base line during the week noticing few things here and there down the road, but trading what`s actuall at the moment.
 
NQurious said:
I do not think "bias" and "outlook" mean quite the same thing. When I read the post that "bad idea to have a bias at all" I agreed.

When I think of a "bias," I think of a belief or tendency that one would be little inclined to give up. An "outlook" on the other hand is simply the judgement that one direction is more likely than another.

My outlook on Thursday morning was that the market would bottom and perhaps begin a large rally. I was wrong, and most of my trades Thursday turned out to be shorts. I had an outlook that the market proved wrong. I've seen traders with "biases" buy a market all the way down.

In the end, no big deal, as each to his own for all I care. But to be fair to @fordewind I do not think that what was being suggested was that the trader remain clueless, but rather than it is a bad idea to adopt such a strong belief that one thing will happen that one ignores any and all evidence to the contrary.
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Semantics, probably. And clueless did perhaps seem a bit harsh, I'll admit. :)

Point is - if you're placing a bet that the market will go up, i.e., you go long, you should have an upward bias.

When someone say it's better to not have a bias, I interpret that as the person saying the market could just as well go up as down. That can be true at certain points in time or it can be true if you don't yet understand the market sufficiently. But if you want to play successfully in the market, you need to enter when the probability that the market goes in your favour is higher than 50 %. Hence, bias. :)
 
Last week we had 5 negative closes for the entire week. This haven't happened so many times in the last few years.

Based on this and some additional analysis, I predict tomorrow having a positive close on the day, i.e., above 2743,25. A large gap down open might void this call, but I don't think that'll happen either.

Main bias for now. ;)
 
#Laissez Faire, I don't like your attitude. Kidding! :D Hoping for some uppage too. This constant down is boring. And unprofitable since I have a bunch of longs out... :p Good trading to you. :)
 
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