ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Buy1Sell2]

Really nice cash closing today. Nice inside bar with plenty of upside potential. Again, I'll be cautious at the 2690 area, but we should move in that direction very shortly---the move is already underway.----Vol looking to a T day tomorrow----Likely Peks as well.---Talk to you later.

 

[Specterx]

I'm still skeptic. But we'll see.
I knooow you don't look at this stuff...(but I do)... SPY volume today is 40% below its 10 day moving average.
I'll buy into the massive up-move theory when we get some confirmation. I'm a firm believer that volume doesn't lie. Especially when divining a strong up-move.
In all honesty, I started the day thinking we might test 2600.
I just feel like this market is fiddling while Rome, if not quite burning... is slowly getting hotter.
We'll see, but unless some good news on something breaks, I'll play short on 7 point upticks for a few points.

Low volume on a bull grind isn't bearish though, at least not at the level of the whole market. In Edwards & Magee they say something like "stocks can fall of their own accord but need volume to rise", in modern times it seems to be the opposite due to automatic processes (passive portfolio balance inflows, ETF/index buying, buybacks) that put in a constant gradual bid.

 

[Specterx]

Looking across my charts, a number of symbols gave strong-looking sell signals in the last few days which mostly had very poor follow through - normally suggests another push to the upside. Also, ZB still looks extended with room to pull back. Taken together I'd reckon next few days will see a push to ES 2700-2720.

 

[SPYgrain]

then we have the daily chart downtrend line around 2700..it actually comes in as low as 2680

 

[SPYgrain]

...further, 2675-2710 has been a pivotal area since Halloween with those 3 different gaps on cash (es-night)..

 

[SPYgrain]

...further, 2675-2710 has been a pivotal area since Halloween with those 3 different gaps on cash (es-night)..

 

[vanzandt]

Yes--it's my view that volume has little to do with direction.

?
That may be... but it has everything to do with trends.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

?
That may be... but it has everything to do with trends.

It is my opinion that volume analysis is TMI

 

[vanzandt]

It is my opinion that volume analysis is TMI

Too much information?
I mean I like to keep it simple too, but ignoring volume?
That makes no sense to me; but to each their own I guess, and we are up nicely pre-market here so I must say you've had some decent calls the last two days. Hope you held overnight. 20 points is pretty sweet.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Market likely to stay above 2642 today. Long is my view.