ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Laissez Faire said:
The new high, although it was a spike, invalidated my trade idea. Stop at 24,50.

EDIT: Stopped for a -1,50 point loss.

I was looking for a rollover on a double top, but we're more likely to keep making new highs from here. Nice upside potential from here, but not playing it.
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Maybe just trade sitting on the toilet seat.
 
Pekelo said:
I think we have topped for a week...double double top with RSI divergence.
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At the moment trend remains up. We had a real nice today and made a new high. Could it reverse tomorrow? Certainly, but I remain long in my thinking for now.
 
Looking across my equity symbols, lots of them are looking like minor reversals are in play on the dailies.

NQ looks like a great short setup down to about 6100 if today's low fails.
 
Laissez Faire said:
FWIW, I've pretty much discarded both intermarket analysis (NQ, YM and other related markets) and volume for short term (day) trading for the time being. It's an extra piece of information which seem to offer some additional clues, but which can also confuse and mislead.

Ideally, you'll see the indexes move in tandem on a strong move, but sometimes one can lag the other. There's been times where I've perceived ES to be strong, but YM and NQ looks weak. Shortly after, they're all going up.

One way I used NQ in the past is that I would for example not expect a bottom in ES when ES had completed a gap fill below while NQ was still in the process of filling it's gap. Often, this would work out.

Curious what experiences other people have though and if the edge given by intermarket analysis is big enough to warrant using it? I recently talked to a trader I have much respect for saying he does not use volume either and it gave me confidence to stick with that for now.
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Going back to this... my personal experience has been that keeping an eye on a variety of symbols is useful for swing/position trading. Not so much ES vs. NQ but like indices versus sectors, key stocks and a broad selection of "normal" stocks, as well as bonds. It's of course more relevant when something interesting is going on in the market, as now, versus the run of the mill bull grind.

Right now for example we have a situation where the indices are looking like they could be a short but T-bonds are still extended, which to me suggests that although a short could work, there's likely to be a more significant inflection point in the coming weeks worthy of more risk and a more ambitious target.

I don't see any reason why the same wouldn't apply to day trading though I think operationally it might be more hassle than it's worth. Trading the dailies or higher you have the luxury of time to flip through a bunch of symbols and timeframes to see what if anything stands out, and formulate a plan, which usually isn't the case in day trading. What you don't want to be doing is getting into analysis paralysis or fighting the price in front of you because XYZ is doing something different.
 
On a couple of weeks horizon, i am bullish. However, on a couple of days horizon, I think volatility will increase.
Today, we had great news on GS and BAC. XLF moved up big time. But the overall market moved slightly,
and in a narrow range. Volatility was low today.
Buyers are cautious. The institutional buyers are cautious.
 
Pekelo said:
5 mins. We had 2 tops in the morning 10:10 and 11:40, and at a higher price 2 tops at 2:30 and 3:30 ET while RSI going down...
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Certainly was a short term sell signal on futures. We have not seen that on cash, so I would assume that this indicates the overnight pullback that we see in futures and not yet a reversal down on RTH daily.
 
RRY16 said:
Maybe just trade sitting on the toilet seat.
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Maybe.

Specterx said:
Going back to this... my personal experience has been that keeping an eye on a variety of symbols is useful for swing/position trading. Not so much ES vs. NQ but like indices versus sectors, key stocks and a broad selection of "normal" stocks, as well as bonds. It's of course more relevant when something interesting is going on in the market, as now, versus the run of the mill bull grind.
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Sounds reasonable.

Specterx said:
I don't see any reason why the same wouldn't apply to day trading though I think operationally it might be more hassle than it's worth. Trading the dailies or higher you have the luxury of time to flip through a bunch of symbols and timeframes to see what if anything stands out, and formulate a plan, which usually isn't the case in day trading. What you don't want to be doing is getting into analysis paralysis or fighting the price in front of you because XYZ is doing something different.
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I think you'll easily get into paralysis by analysis doing this, so I think it should be limited and have some simple rules.

Yesterday was actually a great example of how a divergence between NQ and ES/YM indicated limited upside and potential for a sell. ES made marginally new highs, but NQ was well of it's highs and actually making lower highs at the same time.

As I'm paying less attention to these patterns in real time, I didn't spot this divergence until after the close.

NQ 03-19 (1 Minute) _ ES 03-19 (1 Minute) 2019_01_17 (07_39_30).png
 
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