ES Journal - 2019/2020

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I bet you ES guys probably didn't even notice the Tranny's closed down 72 points today on high volume... while everything else closed green on pretty much anemic volume.
...Just sayin'.
Oops... I forgot... whats good for NFLX is good for the markets. Makes perfect sense.
Buy! Buy! Buy!
:D
 
vanzandt said:
Hard to believe anyone would be going long tonight in the absence of any news.
I think we get red as can be here pretty soon.
Pretty easy really.
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Perhaps some believe or expect positive news on trade in the not too distant future. There will probably be news from the Mueller investigation this week, but no any great worries that it may have on the market as far as I can see. A decisive economic report or a earnings report that can be seen as a proxy for the US economy could give us a nice daily range expansion.
 
vanzandt said:
I bet you ES guys probably didn't even notice the Tranny's closed down 72 points today on high volume... while everything else closed green on pretty much anemic volume.
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FWIW, I've pretty much discarded both intermarket analysis (NQ, YM and other related markets) and volume for short term (day) trading for the time being. It's an extra piece of information which seem to offer some additional clues, but which can also confuse and mislead.

Ideally, you'll see the indexes move in tandem on a strong move, but sometimes one can lag the other. There's been times where I've perceived ES to be strong, but YM and NQ looks weak. Shortly after, they're all going up.

One way I used NQ in the past is that I would for example not expect a bottom in ES when ES had completed a gap fill below while NQ was still in the process of filling it's gap. Often, this would work out.

Curious what experiences other people have though and if the edge given by intermarket analysis is big enough to warrant using it? I recently talked to a trader I have much respect for saying he does not use volume either and it gave me confidence to stick with that for now.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Singularly useless info.
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Thats totally not true. It all depends on the time-frame in question.

Your bias near-term is up. Mine is down. I saw a market soar today on what I consider "singularly useless information". Netflix adding a billion or so to their top line by raising subscription charges is absolutely meaningless beyond the ensuing CNBC fueled, herd buy mentality. Thats what I saw.

If you've been around stocks long enough, you should know that the transports usually don't lie. They are a leading indicator in both directions. Divergence like we had today is significant, albeit today's was not that big per se.

That said, if your looking out over the waves and you are trying to scalp a few points here and there playing the chop... then I would agree. The transports are meaningless. But if you are trying for a larger gain.... you need to zoom the chart out a bit....beyond a 1 hour screenshot... and take in the bigger picture. I wanted 30 points out of this trade overnight. I could have taken that quick 7, but I think we are going down much more. So far it appears I'm wrong, well not wrong, we're just flat-lining all night. I'm -4 actually. No biggie.
Don't get too bullish B1... there's a lot of uncertainty out there.
 
VIX starting to level off on 60 min. Any bit of selling could accelerate quickly given the rising wedge pattern.

Avg short now 2607 as I added some overnight at 2615.
 
vanzandt said:
Thats totally not true. It all depends on the time-frame in question.

Your bias near-term is up. Mine is down. I saw a market soar today on what I consider "singularly useless information". Netflix adding a billion or so to their top line by raising subscription charges is absolutely meaningless beyond the ensuing CNBC fueled, herd buy mentality. Thats what I saw.

If you've been around stocks long enough, you should know that the transports usually don't lie. They are a leading indicator in both directions. Divergence like we had today is significant, albeit today's was not that big per se.

That said, if your looking out over the waves and you are trying to scalp a few points here and there playing the chop... then I would agree. The transports are meaningless. But if you are trying for a larger gain.... you need to zoom the chart out a bit....beyond a 1 hour screenshot... and take in the bigger picture. I wanted 30 points out of this trade overnight. I could have taken that quick 7, but I think we are going down much more. So far it appears I'm wrong, well not wrong, we're just flat-lining all night. I'm -4 actually. No biggie.
Don't get too bullish B1... there's a lot of uncertainty out there.
More...

I’m cancelling NFLX as I don’t see the value in raising subscription price 30%
 
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