ES Journal - 2019/2020

[beerntrading]

You realize APPL warning will be followed by more warnings from other companies.

I'm really curious how far this will go. It does have the feeling of a first incident, not an isolated one. I also wonder what a political liability this will become. China demand being the sole source of this (so says the letter), plays nicely into China's hand regarding tariffs--especially since China has more political will to whether economic pain. It makes it all the more humiliating that it came the same day the president called December a 'glitch' (anyone believe he speaks truth this time? ). China will not be offering up trade concessions in this environment. Any premium in the market based on a presumed trade deal will begin to evaporate.

 

[mbondy]

Lol...love your optimism mbondy. You realize APPL warning will be followed by more warnings from other companies. Look at ISM today. Heck look at the bond mkt. Many called me crazy when I loaded up on the 10 yr after it hit 3.25 yield.

I’m curious what you consider a correction vs bear mkt? Or are you one of those that thinks they are all corrections?

Ha I thought you'd get a kick out of that
Well, we're not even down 20% yet so there's that.
Plus, there's a host of economic indicators that are still showing strength - slowing, but still strong.
A correction is just that - a reversion to more realistic valuations. I think you'd agree that this is long overdue.
A bear market is a sustained sell-off supported by a faltering economy. We're not there yet and it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see this game of smoke and mirrors perpetuated by the central bank kick another 10 year leg onto the bull market.

If this market makes a new low, I'd be more than happy to reconsider my view but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

[mastacoli71]

Ha I thought you'd get a kick out of that
Well, we're not even down 20% yet so there's that.
Plus, there's a host of economic indicators that are still showing strength - slowing, but still strong.
A correction is just that - a reversion to more realistic valuations. I think you'd agree that this is long overdue.
A bear market is a sustained sell-off supported by a faltering economy. We're not there yet and it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see this game of smoke and mirrors perpetuated by the central bank kick another 10 year leg onto the bull market.

If this market makes a new low, I'd be more than happy to reconsider my view but I don't think it's going to happen.

All the signs are there of a slow down / recession / whatever you want to call it. I don’t know how low this goes but I am a big believer this it goes a lot lower (possibly 1600) before we break 2940 high. It’s a shame because Main Street got used to 20% annual returns over the last 3 years thinking it will never stop.

 

[mbondy]

All the signs are there of a slow down / recession / whatever you want to call it. I don’t know how low this goes but I am a big believer this it goes a lot lower (possibly 1600) before we break 2940 high. It’s a shame because Main Street got used to 20% annual returns over the last 3 years thinking it will never stop.

Not going to happen. At least not in the next 2 years.
Mnuchin has already prepped the Presidents working group and the 6 heads of the country's largest banks to ensure both liquidity and support, which stinks to high heaven of presidential manipulation.
We've seen the bottom already.
Mark my words for journalistic integrity!
Prepare for liftoff.

 

[Overnight]

All the signs are there of a slow down / recession / whatever you want to call it...

What are the signs then? A slowing of growth over time, but still growth, is a far cry from a contraction, where there is negative growth.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Should get a nice little bounce from here into the mid 50s or 60.

You betcha

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Long 2461.50 Initial stop 2438.00

Stop would not have been hit by less than a point. I am showing good ability to pick how far a move can go, but generally placing the stop just a bit too close to where the market will rebound from. Doing well.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

This pullback and back and forth is all just part of the unfolding of the huge move that I described occurring by end of week and is unfolding now. Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least---Get ready.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I hope we don't get too far ahead of ourselves. I expect 2511 by RTH opening.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

By my reading, ES daily has been clearly down ever since the big drop on October 10th. The monthly held up for another few weeks but December did major technical damage any way you look at it - December was the follow-through selling.

I don't see any technical justification for a swing long position, except maybe as a very short-term countertrend play for a move back into the 2600s - which ought to be shorted if/when it develops. Intraday of course can go either way.

Daily chart continuing it's very staunch bullish tilt. I would look for 2300 to hold on the daily chart and really I would doubt that we would drop back that far anyway.