ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Buy1Sell2]

The story changed fundamentally with the AAPL guide-down. That's gonna be a monster headwind after today's whispy test of 2525. It's tough to imagine meaningful action above 2525 now before the word recession is used (by perennial bulls--not just perma-bears).

I don't look at news or guidance. I only look at technicals and we'll see what happens. By the way, this is another reason I don't use a hard stop after RTH. The market is too thin and can take your stop out and come right back ---just like it would have last night.

 

[FriskyCat]

I don't look at news. I only look at technicals and we'll see what happens. By the way, this is another reason I don't use a hard stop after RTH. The market is too thin and can take your stop out and come right back ---just like it would have last night.

Or move 300 pts away from your entry like it did in October. Rationalize it all you want.

 

[beerntrading]

I don't look at news or guidance.

Well, you do...but you just catch it in the charts. Same here. I saw the Qs at 4:25ish and went hunting for the news...found the AAPL halt about the same time CNBC tweeted.

I don't doubt that someone can understand the full significance of news purely from technicals, but nor do I doubt it's helpful to be able to abstract a meaningful quantitative assessment of qualitative news. (Also, news is more significant on single names where I play)

 

[Illini Trader]

Or move 300 pts away from your entry like it did in October. Rationalize it all you want.

Frisky, why don't you and Des just bug off and leave this thread to those who are really interested in what real people are doing and thinking as regards to ES. I do not have anyone on ignore but you two are in contention for the honor.

 

[Overnight]

Or move 300 pts away from your entry like it did in October. Rationalize it all you want.

Well, I can understand B1S2's idea of trading without stops on swing/position...That became my bread-and-butter until this year, when the swings got too violent and I had to bail on one of my longest live trades, a month of an NQ long in Oct. But what I do not understand, Buy1Sell2, is why you would put a stop in during the RTH, but then remove it after RTH, and then replace it when the next RTH session starts? That seems counter-intuitive to me, because at that point you are just playing games with your own head, no?

The "soft" or mental stop is just testing your risk-tolerance over a long term. But to put in a hard stop here and there after a long-term hold is already way in the red seems to obliterate the idea of position-trading in the first place?

I dunno', I'm starting to finally get a better feel for the current volatility with day trading. Maybe you can give it a shot?

Today I focused on just one sim account, and come hell or highwater would just deal with the outcome of the day. It got pretty dicey after I was down $7K, but finally came out a winner...

The max I went on some trades was 8 contracts per trade, with is about my tolerable limit with a $25K account. It is really pushing the limits, but it IS doable on daytrading with some brokers. Not recommended, and CERTAINLY cannot be done on overnights without a 7 figure, or high-6-figure account. But you get the idea.

P.S. Ignore the "number of trades" row, NT7 is silly with that. It was 72 contracts RT, which at an average of $4.20 per RT is ~$300 commies.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Well, I can understand B1S2's idea of trading without stops on swing/position...That became my bread-and-butter until this year, when the swings got too violent and I had to bail on one of my longest live trades, a month of an NQ long in Oct. But what I do not understand, Buy1Sell2, is why you would put a stop in during the RTH, but then remove it after RTH, and then replace it when the next RTH session starts? That seems counter-intuitive to me, because at that point you are just playing games with your own head, no?

The "soft" or mental stop is just testing your risk-tolerance over a long term. But to put in a hard stop here and there after a long-term hold is already way in the red seems to obliterate the idea of position-trading in the first place?

I dunno', I'm starting to finally get a better feel for the current volatility with day trading. Maybe you can give it a shot?

Today I focused on just one sim account, and come hell or highwater would just deal with the outcome of the day. It got pretty dicey after I was down $7K, but finally came out a winner...

View attachment 196408 View attachment 196409 View attachment 196410

The max I went on some trades was 8 contracts per trade, with is about my tolerable limit with a $25K account. It is really pushing the limits, but it IS doable on daytrading with some brokers. Not recommended, and CERTAINLY cannot be done on overnights without a 7 figure, or high-6-figure account. But you get the idea.

P.S. Ignore the "number of trades" row, NT7 is silly with that. It was 72 contracts RT, which at an average of $4.20 per RT is ~$300 commies.

I place a stop during RTH because the market is deep and I feel the support and resistance area are stronger and based more on reality. By the way, I am getting what I asked for earlier---a pullback overnight. This is what I would much rather have going into the continued unfolding of the huge move.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Pullback here overnight is just what the doctor ordered to give a springboard to run up to 2525/30 and beyond. Looking to buy all dips for a while on a very short term basis

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Pullback here overnight is just what the doctor ordered to give a springboard to run up to 2525/30 and beyond. Looking to buy all dips for a while on a very short term basis

Should be some more pullback before the run back up and I like that very much. Yesterday's RTH activity was bullish and so I look for a bounce off of this pullback later in the overnight or in the early part of RTH.

 

[volente_00]

Still believe we tag 2585-2590 (SPX) area from below before next sustained move lower

I agree. Even if you are bearish the descending trendline comes in around 2650 SPX.

 

[volente_00]

The story changed fundamentally with the AAPL guide-down. That's gonna be a monster headwind after today's whispy test of 2525. It's tough to imagine meaningful action above 2525 now before the word recession is used (by perennial bulls--not just perma-bears).

AAPL writing has been on the wall for a long time. Hell for the past 2 years United State's retailers have had to incentivize iPhone transactions with gift cards just to keep demand up. 10 years ago iphone was $300-$400 and now $1000-$1,200. Consumers simply won't support upgrading as often after a 200% increase. And how many sweatshop workers in China can afford a $1000 device? To me AAPL is a non event because it has now become a luxury item to most with many cheaper alternatives.