ES Journal - 2019/2020

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ESfocus said:
What I'm asking is why is it reasonable to hold ... trades because more often than wrong and lose $??
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I'll answer you, because I actually think you might be sincerely asking. If I'm mistaken, shame on me.

First and foremost ...

NQurious said:
Took some off +5's ... looking for +10's and keep a couple runners just in case. I'm fairly consistent with the way I do things.
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I have a plan. I do my very hard to stick to it. I have had moments of hubris where I traded counter to plan and experience and almost every time I was like this at the end of the day: :banghead:

I know that when the ES is in an uptrend and I am long near the current day's low and it is after 10:30 AM that the most likely event is that the market ends near whatever it's eventual high is. I almost always find myself long within just a few points of the day's low. I am often long from with a few ticks. I have a few times been so lucky as to get a limit filled at the exact low tick of the day. When I am long near the low of the day, and the market is trading at, near, or above its opening range, the odds favored continuation. If you knew how much more those runners have paid me than closing them out would have saved me, you'd not ask the question.

However, you might have asked the question, because your perception of what happened is different from mine:

ESfocus said:
You got out of much of your position @ 89 because it's unlikely to go any higher (i assume this is why?), but keep a few 'runners' in the UNLIKELY event it does goes higher? More often than not you will lose money in a less likely than not trade.Right?

Will you clarify your reasoning behind holding 'unlikely' trades, ie runners rather than getting out the full position when things turn unlikely? Thanks.

What I'm asking is why is it reasonable to hold unlikely trades because more often than wrong and lose $??
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My reason for getting out of most of my position with +9's instead of holding out for the last two ticks would have been apparent to anyone who trades order flow. I am not going to hold a teachable moment on reading order flow, but I believe I made it obvious from my post where I stated my exit that I did so based on the fact that it was apparent the market was able to pullback. It was not apparent that we'd see anything like the lack of buying we saw in the afternoon.

Read my first paragraph to you above: The most likely event was continuation higher. I'll stand by that all day. The only thing unlikely at that point was that the market was not going higher at that moment. So, my thoughts were why risk a substantial portion of my open trade profits being a stubborn holdout for an extra $25/contract? I like to risk $25 to make $500. I do not like to risk $450 to make $25. Every tick changes the risk:reward calculus a bit.

Now, between 1:00 PM and 1:45 PM it would have became apparent to all but the terminally stupid that the trend was down, and shorting bounces was the order of the day. I did close those runners with some decent profit remaining. I could not report it here as I was truly out on the golf course. For journal integrity purposes, we can just say they were closed at break even.

But the main answer to all your questions is simple: I have a plan based on careful observation over man, many hours and based on detail notes and statistics that tells me when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk away. I am a bit bummed that today of all days I decide to take a mid-week afternoon off to play golf, but it had been planned in advance and it was for a good cause.

PS God loves you, but he does not care one bit about your position in the market. Prayer is not a trading plan.
 
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