ES Journal - 2019/2020

[trdes]

Finally larger chart starting to play out and NQ retracing as expected. What an amazing job of them getting people to look up, now like we discussed a lot of trapped longs. So just need to be aware any longs will be difficult and if we do get a decent move up, higher probability we will retest near where the move up originates from again, even if it is to continue higher later.

Unfortunately I didn't catch tons of this down move today, we we're only in the distribution area for seconds, but I did find a short but didn't hold for the breakdown.

Nothing has changed with expected retrace, still have probability as 11506.50 and than lesser but still decent probability of 11208.

Been difficult for me to effectively trade it, but can only do the best I can do.

Here's the first decent move up, happening so fast, but shorted for the retrace back where the move originated from. Already covered some incase we don't fully retrace.

 

[trdes]

Here's the first decent move up, happening so fast, but shorted for the retrace back where the move originated from. Already covered some incase we don't fully retrace.

Need below 11547.75 and than we should go lower. That's current support. If we go above 11580.00. I'll exit my last one for a loss which is currently at 11570.00

 

[trdes]

Need below 11547.75 and than we should go lower. That's current support. If we go above 11580.00. I'll exit my last one for a loss which is currently at 11570.00

11511-11531 clears the retrace, so anywhere in that rough area I'll look to take profits if not stopped out first.

 

[trdes]

11511-11531 clears the retrace, so anywhere in that rough area I'll look to take profits if not stopped out first.

Exit last one for loss. Still think it's shortable though. but don't feel like fighting it.

 

[trdes]

Where my help at? lol

 

[QTrader20]

Where my help at? lol

Everybody will come back once market reaches back to ATH...

 

[syswizard]

Everybody will come back once market reaches back to ATH...

Exactly. We have a lot of long-only "perma-bulls" here.

 

[trdes]

Everybody will come back once market reaches back to ATH...

Fair enough. It's just like what are people doing, I think it hurts them more than they know. When market is going up and up, everyone talking about higher and their system, and showing charts in hindsight after market rallies.

The ideal of a forum(or at least to me and logical purposes) is to share information and potentially learn.

Posted by my trades I am far from perfect, but I post what I KNOW has a probability and 90% of the information I've given has been pretty accurate and most of the time I post it way ahead of time, or at the latest when the market is moving or is in that area. That way we all can see what happens. It does no good to post charts 2 hours later. If it fails that's just what happens sometimes, no need to try and always be right. Again people focus way too much on being right. You can be right 99.9% of the time and if that 00.01% takes away all your gains it's irrelevant. Also, maybe someone will notice when something I post fails and they see a pattern, they could potentially help me fill that gap or even maybe they'll find a signal or something that helps them.


So, just saying in short no one is obligated to post, and certainly shouldn't be posting unless they know or have a strong reason to believe the information their posting has an actual edge. But at the same time don't want people to not post just because they are afraid to be wrong.

If you post and are wrong and I see a concept or something that you may be missing. I am more than happy to share information that may also help you fill in that gap.

 

[wiesman02]

Not a lot to work with today for me. I’d like to get long around 34-35 but I don’t see enough r:r to make it worth it

 

[Kovacs]

Fair enough. It's just like what are people doing, I think it hurts them more than they know. When market is going up and up, everyone talking about higher and their system, and showing charts in hindsight after market rallies.

The ideal of a forum(or at least to me and logical purposes) is to share information and potentially learn.

Posted by my trades I am far from perfect, but I post what I KNOW has a probability and 90% of the information I've given has been pretty accurate and most of the time I post it way ahead of time, or at the latest when the market is moving or is in that area. That way we all can see what happens. It does no good to post charts 2 hours later. If it fails that's just what happens sometimes, no need to try and always be right. Again people focus way too much on being right. You can be right 99.9% of the time and if that 00.01% takes away all your gains it's irrelevant. Also, maybe someone will notice when something I post fails and they see a pattern, they could potentially help me fill that gap or even maybe they'll find a signal or something that helps them.


So, just saying in short no one is obligated to post, and certainly shouldn't be posting unless they know or have a strong reason to believe the information their posting has an actual edge. But at the same time don't want people to not post just because they are afraid to be wrong.

If you post and are wrong and I see a concept or something that you may be missing. I am more than happy to share information that may also help you fill in that gap.

That's fair. I want to contribute more but I trade for 3-8 points at a time (in this market) and the trades are fast and short-lived to comment live. And I think posting the trades in hindsight would just invite criticism. For what it's worth, here's my single trade today. The stop on that was 3432.

After seeing price bounce off 3400 overnight and seeing a huge 30-minute reversal bar at 10:30am ET, I was long-biased. I was trading only between 13:00 and 15:00 today. At 13:00, I saw price breaking out of the downward range-bound trend (5-minute), I waited for a retrace to the previous resistance level, got long, and exited at the high. I then wanted to short 3450 but was too distracted by other things.