ES Journal - 2019/2020
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The range so far this week is a bit below average recently. While it's possible the week range have been set - I'm thinking we'll see a new high or low for the week tomorrow.
Today wasn't the barn burner some longs may have hoped for, but we did close positively on the day and near top of the weekly range.
So, finally 3400 + tomorrow or a sell off to test the bottom of the range and even as low as 3290?
Today wasn't the barn burner some longs may have hoped for, but we did close positively on the day and near top of the weekly range.
So, finally 3400 + tomorrow or a sell off to test the bottom of the range and even as low as 3290?
Looking at 2 days, gap up today on open and then lower highs through the day.
Often gaps bugger things up as longer term traders don't wish to chase.
Am using SPY to see volume.
This is not a low-risk idea, but a gap up tomorrow might be the way this plays out. But whether that gap holds or not is another story. I keep looking at the index patterns and they just look that way to me.
Lol. That’s like saying if I flip a coin it’s either heads or tails. Well of course we’ll be up or down tommorrow.Your hedging your call so no matter what we do you’ll be right. The problem is the in between is were people get whipsawed to death. The mkt’s in a very controlled range here . If I had to guess I’m leaning toward and upward bias as I think earnings will be much better than expected . Also the vix is pricing in risk thus I think we could rally a bit first.
That's not quite correct, Sammy. I didn't say we would either go up or down tomorrow. That much is given. I said my expectation is that we will expand the weekly range either up or down.
It's perfectly possible that the weekly high or low is already set. So, there's a difference.
If you paid attention I've been bullish on this entire week and still am, so that's where I'm leaning still. But I'm afraid to start sounding like a broken record, so I figured I didn't need to repeat that.
That said - I think we're setting up for a new leg lower on higher time frames after the next push up.
In previous post you mentioned "we did close positive on day".Didn't quite get your take here, Mickey. Please clarify.
All good as I agree with that, however on close inspection, after the gap up on open, prices fell.
Below is ES, because this is ES journal I suppose I need to keep things in context, but SPX, SPY & ES all fell away through the day.
So, after the gap up (a) no money in it for the bulls (b) reinforces my current bearish bias which appears to be prevailing in spite of an overall up day.
Lower highs
Got it.
Sure, we did indeed close lower than we opened, but personally, I would rather focus on the fact that we closed higher than yesterday and close to top of the weekly range.
Thursday gap up with a lower close and a positive change on the day have an average change of + 0,30 % the following day with a 60 % chance of a positive close on the day.
So, on that basis alone it's not particularly bearish, IMO.
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