ES Journal - 2019/2020

[tiddlywinks]

We are trading right now at the exact spot that the market opened on the gap down day 2/24/2020. The gap has now been filled from below and from above and I believe there is huge support here.

The good news is that a 5 year old can see the support you refer too. Huge support? Not according to volume (which is currently elevated/rising)... Your reference point was very near the start of the selloff.

If your expectation fails, you are looking at 3130 (or so), and if the current parallel channel is used, you are looking at 3000 or so for (just) touching the lower channel trend line. 2750-2800 is significant support below there, imo.

Good trading to all.

 

[Gaslight Capital]

We are trading right now at the exact spot that the market opened on the gap down day 2/24/2020. The gap has now been filled from below and from above and I believe there is huge support here.

Not everyone understands or appreciates your brilliance @Buy1Sell2

Pay them no mind. Be a slave to the grind.

 

[SammyJ]

Today’s what happens when the vast majority of traders are leaning heavy short .Had way to much negativity for such a small move off the top .

 

[Buy1Sell2]

DEMTDAYBOYZLUVGREEN!

Absolutely massive long Vol. Do you concur?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Not everyone understands or appreciates your brilliance @Buy1Sell2

Pay them no mind. Be a slave to the grind.

Are you long now as well?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The good news is that a 5 year old can see the support you refer too.

Correct. There is no edge in being able to define patterns, support or resistance etc. The edge is in being able to manage the trades.----Most cannot.

 

[Gaslight Capital]

Correct. There is no edge in being able to define patterns, support or resistance etc. The edge is in being able to manage the trades.----Most cannot.

I'd disagree with you there re: edge in support/resistance and certain non-random yet repeating price patterns, but I agree wholeheartedly most have not the foggiest about how to manage a trade and manage their risk. But as to support, resistance, and certain patterns, my friend, I have made far too much off of them over the years for them to be without merit.

Good trading and have a great weekend!

 

[volente_00]

Absolutely massive long Vol. Do you concur?

Yes sir

Still bullish as hell from 320 spy 3200 ES area 3200 SPX area

SPX objectives remains the same at

3304
3405
3580


3:1 r:r

 

[themickey]

We are trading right now at the exact spot that the market opened on the gap down day 2/24/2020. The gap has now been filled from below and from above and I believe there is huge support here.

I'll taking the opposite tack, atm the mkt indicates weakness, Friday's bounce was not strong enough to portend a continuing bull mkt, it is just a reaction in a downtrend.
Friday was a strong day and green nearly everywhere but it was not the bottom of the current down push.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Incredibly, by end of last week the S&P closed lower 3 weeks in a row with the low later in the week. On this basis alone - the odds of a higher close next week is 78 %. Many of these weeks happened near market bottoms, though.

If we filter based on the Week Low coming in at Friday and a close less than 10 % from ATH the odds are still pretty damn bullish for the week ahead with a 83 % odds of a higher close, but also 67 % odds of new lows first.

20,25 points shy.

That makes this 4 weeks down in a a row. If I add in another supporting parameter - it's quite a rare pattern which pretty much always sets up the week ahead as a bullish one. Potentially very bullish.

Haven't had time to do an in depth analysis yet, but the initial prediction above was merely considered as a consolidation within a larger leg down which I still think is in play. However, I will not be stubborn and for sure pay attention to the numbers above.

There's plenty of economic numbers coming out this week, end of month on Wednesday, GDP, FOMC talks, etc., so it will probably be another volatile week for sure.