ES Journal - 2019/2020

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schizo said:
Looks like we're gonna break down lower. Lock limit (5%) at 2680.50
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I think we get there by May opex ... if we get there by tomorrow we're in trouble, again. If I could pick a pullback low in advance it would be right around 2659 ESM. But I wasn't thinking it gets there today. I'm thinking a nice orderly pullback lasting about two weeks. And two weeks takes us right into May Opex.
 
schizo said:
+42ish

Out 2779
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Okay ladies, let's rock and roll!

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NQurious said:
A Zen master had a visitor who wanted to know more about Zen. Instead of listening the visitor simply wanted to show off his ideas as the master was pouring tea. The master poured tea into the visitor's cup until it was full and then kept pouring. Finally the visitor could not retrain himself.

"Don't you see that my cup is full?" he asked. "You can't get anymore more in."

"You are right," said the master. And he stopped.

"And like this cup of tea, you are filled with your own ideas. How can you expect me to give you Zen unless yo offer me an empty cup?"

The answer is found in the work.



I would not respond. I get too many.



"I have always known that at last I would take this road, but yesterday I did not know it would be today."

"I would continue on this road, but the road is hard, and there are other paths that beckon."
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And found in the work it shall be.

I figured your PM box gets pounded due to your obvious success among other things. Glad I didn't.

Thanks again. Time to get to it. :thumbsup:

speedo said:
It's true that I've used the tick charts exclusively for years for my 930 (a term coined by my late friend and teacher Mike Bruns) strategy. While I've certainly harvested more ticks in the recent volatility, I realized that not enough of the moves was optimized.

It was NQ, whose insights and ideas I respect who encouraged me to take a look at the 5M and study Al Brooks and David Halsey. I've known Al for years and traded with him for a couple of them in the early millennium. He sent me a copy of his first book when it came out but I found it to be tough reading and was doing fine with the 930s anyway. Well, I recently started studying Al's work in earnest and was frankly astonished at the level and depth of his scholarship with regard to price behavior and development. As long as I've been trading, I have been learning much. If the price of $350 doesn't scare you and the lessons learned should pay you back in many multiples, the video course is quite a bit easier to learn from than the books and contains many hours of instruction. I do not shill for Al and have not communicated with him for 4 or 5 years, the recommendation is based on my respect for his work and nothing else.

I have also at the recommendation of NQ built minute charts with the 5M being central and am developing strategies based on Al's work as well as the HWB concepts of Halsey. As NQ stated, he does not trade Halsey's trade plan. Despite any influences from any sources, each of us will have our own way of trading...there may similarities and some may be close similarities but as we are all different, we will all trade somewhat differently. As to why the 5M, many of the algo bots are designed around it but you will still want to look at larger time frames IMO to see the bigger picture, the forest containing the 5M trees if you will.
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Super helpful speedo! Thanks for weighing in on the matter with your own advances and experience. Much appreciated.
 
SPYgrain said:
Do you trade ES/MES primarily, also day or swing - Relentless?
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Was reading back through some older posts and must have totally forgotten to respond to this. Apologies and such...

Well as I said a few weeks back I'm just returning to back to the world of trading/investing so there is no shot I'd try my hand at the minis right now.

For just a little historical context I tried them with $10K on TradeStation back around the financial crisis (brilliant I know...). My dad was rocking his 401K through the tech bubble when you could actually get away with moving it around and doing more with it. Eventually my older brother got into day trading equities for years (of which I participated in for just a few short years going into my e-mini blunder...) - ultimately didn't end well. That's what happens when you don't know what you're doing and refuse to quit without making the correct adjustments (Einstein and such...). I don't remember exactly when he had to abort but I don't remember it being too long of a period after I got smoked for my entire futures account. I was like 21... young and naive so the outcome was obvious looking back now.

Anyway I'm making other adjustments in life and will get to instruments like the ES eventually. For now since I'm just recently getting reacquainted and trying to work with what I've got in my brokerage account (non-margin) / IRA. Just trying to take advantage of some current market volatility but being careful because I obviously have a lot of studying to put in first.

Ultimately as far as trading goes once I really get active - I think I'll start running smaller shares of the SPY and move the # up as my confidence and results improve. Then I'll look at futures etc. I may try MES in between there but I remember @NQurious recommending someone go the SPY route and them move towards ES so I think that's what I'll shoot for for now.

Currently I legged into SH (seemed fatter and safer than some of those sketchy light volume super levered inverses) at 2850 and 2910. Had one last leg set for a shot higher but couldn't get myself to pull the trigger at 2950 (thought it might go a bit higher). That's ok - i'm looking good here anyway.

Again sorry for the late as hell response. And sheesh... looks like I need take a breather from these encyclopedia-like posts eh?

SPYgrain said:
What I know is 5 waves up to 62% back up, 1 month-3 days (4/29)..because of this - looking for a 2 legged (a-b-c) break lasting 11-22 days going as low as 2440 before next up leg to attempt to take out 4/29 high..
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Thanks for this awesome insight.

If I'm looking at the chart and understanding you correctly... that puts us at "a" of the 2 legged break currently?
 
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NQurious said:
What if he has you blocked and you only think you he hasn't been seen since Thursday AM?
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Naaah I'm good... B1 likes me again.
I called your boy Biden senile down in the cellar a few times.
Plus I said Maga hats were flying off the shelf in Huntington Beach.
 
schizo said:
My source tells me CL has gone up as high as it possibly could. It's bound to fall back down. Also there's a very good chance we see sub-zero again, unless the storage problem is solved before expiration, which is very unlikely.
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You have a good source. CL was fairly strong last week, but now has opened very weak. Possibly there was a lot of short covering last week....dunno. The big wild card is what Trump is going to say and when he is going to say it....via tweet or announcement. He has already said he wants to protect "the great oil industry"....as well as burn the shorts. He's likely taking a chapter out of Elon Musk's book of gunning the shorts.
 
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