ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I think that it got a bit ahead of itself on this rally after the two day pullback. I am not long term or even intermediate term bearish at the moment. I think we pullback to somewher close to 2714 cash SPX soon (tomorrow? Monday?) and possibly down close to 2600. From there I suspect we etch out a trading range between 2600 +/- and 2900 +/- and it could last months or more as we wait out the resolution of the pandemic.
At any rate, somewhere between 85 points down from where we are now and as many as 200 down from where we are now really doesn't sound overly bearish given what we just went through in March.
I always wonder why people give targets like we'll see 2600 in the next few days which i've heard at least 10 times in the past 3 weeks when nobody knows what tomorrow brings even .When we were at 2830 this am tons of people were calling for 2860-2900 and everything looks bullish. A few hrs later all are now bearish. The mkt swings our emotions like a spinning top . Trade the day at hand and forget were you think were going.Like today after the huge move down it was game on to short the big bounces . The day showed its hand and the rubber band loosened.
I like it. That's pretty much my plan other than I think the bottom of said range could get to 2535 just because it's 50% (so magnetic and selling tends to catch more velocity / overshoot) back down. Then again the heavy volatility has really dried up for the time being and suddenly selloffs feel like pulling teeth. I think you might see a few more bears get squeezed out and FOMO bulls get sucked in tomorrow or into very early next week first before we head towards the lower end of that range. Then again we may just be southbound after that mid day price action seemed to have at least temporarily kicked a leg out from under the table.
After a lot of this uncertainty washes out and barring a vicious 2nd round of Covid19 in the Fall, I think we rip something stupid north (insane stimulus, 0% rates, etc). That one to me will be the "everything bubble". Timing is tough so I'll just let the charts / data do the leading.
Fun to theorize anyway
.Anyway, thanks for your near term forecast! Glad to see my rookie observations are at least somewhat in line with somebody whom obviously knows what they are doing.
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In that case, it's time to play hooky with Iron Condor.
Man I have so much to learn in general but have so little understanding of options aside from the fact they get used a lot for hedging.
School me up Flip?
Three thoughts:
1) I agree yearly price targets for the major indexes etc. that you see from the likes of MS or JPM are just numbers based on their current data. So much changes throughout each year that its really less about hard level projections and more about taking action based on incoming data like credit market conditions, relative strength in the right areas of the market, etc. That being said...
2) If your price targets comment was in reference to the #'s @NQurious just tossed out then I don't agree. He laid out a real basic structure and said it could endure beyond months. For those that keep up with this thread and are trying to learn (and understand that this guy knows his shit based on his track record here) it may turn out to be a small memo on printing money if we look back weeks / months from today only to see his levels were very accurate.
3) If you remove the Gilead news from mid day, who's to say there wasn't a strong probability of price heading towards high 2800's or even 2900 today or into Friday? Hell maybe there still is since you constantly say everyone is shrugging off all the bad news. I do agree most people are too emotional and their sentiment changes on a whim. Then again, many of them are lemmings and embrace herd mentality (brutal honesty alert
). Stuff like CNBC is poison. I typically position opposite of market sentiment because they rarely seem to get it right. Anyway this is why I prefer charts + probabilities / statistics.
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I had to log out to see who you were quoting - I have hafez blocked. He adds nothing worth reading and tends toward being a dickhead. If he was referring to me, and since I have him blocked, he has to log out to read what I posted. Unless I'm living rent-free in his head, I would doubt he was referrring to me. If he was referring to me then he's even more pathetic a character than I had intiially believed.
Find the positive, block out the negative. Enjoy life and trade on.
The iron condor is an option trading strategy utilizing two vertical spreads – a put spread and a call spread with the same expiration and four different strikes. Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_condor
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