ES Journal - 2019/2020

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There's a lot of shorts in pain tonight .GS said it best

"surprisingly, the largest shock to the global economy in 90 years has left equities only 18% below the record highs of mid-February and roughly in line with the market price in June 2019, just 10 months ago."
 
hafez50 said:
There's a lot of shorts in pain tonight .GS said it best

"surprisingly, the largest shock to the global economy in 90 years has left equities only 18% below the record highs of mid-February and roughly in line with the market price in June 2019, just 10 months ago."
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Feds $30 billion a day is tough to go against.
 
hafez50 said:
There's a lot of shorts in pain tonight .GS said it best

"surprisingly, the largest shock to the global economy in 90 years has left equities only 18% below the record highs of mid-February and roughly in line with the market price in June 2019, just 10 months ago."
More...
I wish they had said that when the market was crashing. Anyway, don't discount the bears just yet. We have yet to see the full impact of the quarantine. This is just the beginning. From here on out, it won't be Covid-19 but the economic fallout from the lockdown.
 
schizo said:
I wish they had said that when the market was crashing. Anyway, don't discount the bears just yet. We have yet to see the full impact of the quarantine. This is just the beginning. From here on out, it won't be Covid-19 but the economic fallout from the lockdown.
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The market only drops to "shocks" to the system in the last 10 years. Once the retracement occurs, you don't get another leg down unless another "shock" hits. Just too much fed pumping $ into the system. Looks like we need some time for this situation to develop for this next shock to take effect, whatever that might be. I'm assuming its going to be changes in consumer spending habits leading to more permanent layoffs
 
hafez50 said:
The problem is the virus didn't really start hitting earnings till the march 7th-15th so most of the qtr was in the bag. Analysts cut the est's for the qtr big . I'm pretty sure every company will beat big watered down est's. The ironic thing is no company will be able to give forward guidance as they just don't know. The only info we'll get is how business has stopped the past 2-3 weeks but " their hopeful things go back to normal soon" .
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Guidance is what matters most. Makes for a bit of a conundrum...

As an aside GS and all these other clown entities have moved from preaching "shit is bad we have to retest the lows" to "the bottom is in ~ BTFD with both hands". Sounds like it's time to start legging in to a short position if you can stomach the risk.

My theory:

Ultimately I think we at least one more wave of significant selling due to yet to be quantified economic damage before heading to old / new highs but not necessarily a retest due to unprecedented stimulus. Eventually the virus cools off and the economic gears get rolling albeit with couple ugly quarters. At some point all of this stimulus will burst out of the pipeline and you're going to see an upmove that will make even the grittiest of bears shit themselves. When that one ends who knows... EM debt / currency crisis? Could be any number of issues band-aided for years upon years. In my view that's when you get your 50%+ haircut on the major indexes that @NQurious is calling for. As far as actually pinpointing when that will happen good luck. The people printing the money have proven tenfold they can kick the can clear to Jupiter so it's pointless in my mind. Anyway just utilize KISS. When Everest starts to come crashing down a blind person will be able to see it. Then maybe just MAYBE the goosed system gets sanitized (no pun to current affairs) and we can get back to a small period of actual price discovery before the powers that be start building their next house of cards.

*Shrug* /END RANT :cool:
 
EsKiller said:
The market only drops to "shocks" to the system in the last 10 years. Once the retracement occurs, you don't get another leg down unless another "shock" hits. Just too much fed pumping $ into the system. Looks like we need some time for this situation to develop for this next shock to take effect, whatever that might be. I'm assuming its going to be changes in consumer spending habits leading to more permanent layoffs
More...
One of these day the Fed will buy the entire stock market. No more selling. (Paulson: "You're days are over, you dweebs, bwhahahahaha!!!!") I can just feel it coming.:finger:

Edit: sorry, I keep confusing Powell for Paulson. Nevertheless, they're one and the same, aren't they?
 
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