Yes. When a bounce back from the SMA line occurs, it can go 2 ways (using the current monthly candlesticks as example) :
1. It is the highpoint of the counter trend rally and we would go as low or lower as the previous low. In this version we are talking about 350ish points or more.
2. This is just a short bounce back, but usually reaches half of the SMA-BB width. That width is 350 points wide currently. So even in this scenario I would expect at least a 100 points drop from the 2730ish top.
At this point there is no way to tell which version will play out but either way, it is significant in size because the prediction was based on monthly sticks...