ES Journal - 2019/2020

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schizo said:
You can take comfort in the fact that we're now back below 3300
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Yeah, but still 300pts above the 200 day average, no reason for it, not a healthy level. In fact, just about the only major market that is on the average is the HSI and look at the problems Hongkong has, yet they're holding above the average. If you can't say this euphoria into stocks has created a bubble then what can you call it?
 
FXtrader8911 said:
Yeah, but still 300pts above the 200 day average, no reason for it, not a healthy level. In fact, just about the only major market that is on the average is the HSI and look at the problems Hongkong has, yet they're holding above the average. If you can't say this euphoria into stocks has created a bubble then what can you call it?
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Don't worry, it will burst. Both my MNQ long and Vanguard health care fund are about to blow out. I was holding onto the HC fund because I had a sliver of hope that after 4 years of touching BE, the health care fund would have a sliver of hope of getting to a decent target range due to this new virus outbreak. Boy was I fucking wrong.

People, never ever get into a health-care specific fund. You will waste your life. Go all tech and never look back.
 
FXtrader8911 said:
Yeah, but still 300pts above the 200 day average, no reason for it, not a healthy level. In fact, just about the only major market that is on the average is the HSI and look at the problems Hongkong has, yet they're holding above the average. If you can't say this euphoria into stocks has created a bubble then what can you call it?
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(Where's that damn bullhorn, 1 2 3 testing) EVERYONE KNOWS THIS IS A BUBBLE :finger:

But then again, throughout my entire career, I've NEVER ONCE seen a market act in a rational manner. It has always moved from one extreme (greed) to the other (fear).
 
schizo said:
EVERYONE KNOWS THIS IS A BUBBLE
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Isn't the stock market nothing but one bubble after another? Just in recent memeory we had the internet bubble, then the housing bubble, and this latest and greatest, The Everything Bubble. At some point the bubble will burst, and then we do it all over again. Take me to the top and then throw me off ...

 
Laissez Faire said:
Weekly Prediction Week 4:

My weekly technical model predicts next week as a down week closing down between 1-2 %.

The week high should be in by Tuesday or Wednesday and we should see the week low on Thursday or Friday.

This could be the start of a multi-week correction before the next major leg up.

It feels risky to bet against this market, but this is what my data is telling me, so I'm going with that.

Let's see how it goes.
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Interesting. Actual weekly change on ES: - 1,01%.

I was losing faith in this call after Thursday's lack of follow through to the down, but lo and behold.

These weekly calls started out merely as an experiment as I have the data to be able to make such predictions, but were uncertain if it's possible (or if I had the smarts to do so). But I'm starting to believe.

Not sure I'll be posting them anymore from this point on, but I maintain my viewpoints in the quoted post.

Overall, I remain bullish for the year and I do not think this is the top, but it could easily be the start of a multi-week correction (not a sell-off or doomsday scenario). Markets do correct. Does not mean it's the next financial crisis.

Friday closed down -0,92%. The last time the market closed down 0,92% or more was the 2nd of December 2019 (-1,23 %). What followed was a large gap down the next day and we traded higher ever since.

upload_2020-1-25_11-2-33.png
 
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