ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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damn a new RTH high was very high probable, but exit @3003.50 sounds about right, lets not be greedy.
A bit hard to follow, initially you said PA was indicating much lower than pre-market low reached at 20.15, one can then take it that you did not enter at pre-market which was in fact the low of the day i.e. PA signal was wrong, but then your last post indicates an exit at the day's high at 10 AM
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No i did not enter long at the turn during premarket, my bias was more towards short since pre market open. But once the down move started showing exhaustion, i was on sidelines, i played one last PA setup sell side, but it never really made a new low, so i had to logoff.
Morning open, Price was outside of my PA calculation, I did make a few trades but it was just give and take, nothing significant in terms of loss/win. But when price started coming back into PA setup , i made buy at 2996.75, it was as per my PA calculation and that move had very high probability of making a new RTH high and my target was 05.00, but move got exhausted around 4.25 so i exited @3.50. For me it was a requirement to make a new RTH high otherwise it was back to chop( wider chop), if the move to a new RTH high happened then it would have given more clarity, right now market is being held up and price is not moving freely. will have to wait and see what will be the outcome.
BTW my trades are on probability with PA conditions, nothing is 100%. I keep very logical stop loss for that reason, If price moves according to my read, then its well and good but if not then i just stand on sidelines, i don't question when price is not moving as per my PA conditions, cos the big picture might be different i am just trying to read it intraday.
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Hmmmm.
I have to ask... where's the money flow heading? In equities that is. What sectors.
-Energy? Ahhh. Maybe. But politics aside... I don't think Trump has the appetite for another war. That would be a huge costly mess. Let Saudi take care of their own sh*t. Sell them the weapons. Bring the UAE and Quwait in too. Sell them a bunch. They owe us anyway. jmho
-Cyclicals. Nope. Too much uncertainty.
-Healthcare. Nope. Too much uncertainty.
-Consumer staples. Nope. Overbought.
-Defense sector. Overbought but might run near-term a bit more.
-Tech. Sold off and still too expensive.
-Financials. No friggin way. Rate cuts on the way.
-Communications. Thats a joke. Race to the bottom underway.
-Utiliities. Maybe.
-Materials. They follow the industrials.
All in all, there's not much left to chase for the time being. Unless tech saves us all again.
I think the markets need to just consolidate and redistribute a bit. Too much going on in the world. Too much uncertainty.
I think B1's bear... although it may not be real bad bear.... he might lumber out of his den here pretty soon and get a bite to eat. He's napped enough.
I have to ask... where's the money flow heading? In equities that is. What sectors.
-Energy? Ahhh. Maybe. But politics aside... I don't think Trump has the appetite for another war. That would be a huge costly mess. Let Saudi take care of their own sh*t. Sell them the weapons. Bring the UAE and Quwait in too. Sell them a bunch. They owe us anyway. jmho
-Cyclicals. Nope. Too much uncertainty.
-Healthcare. Nope. Too much uncertainty.
-Consumer staples. Nope. Overbought.
-Defense sector. Overbought but might run near-term a bit more.
-Tech. Sold off and still too expensive.
-Financials. No friggin way. Rate cuts on the way.
-Communications. Thats a joke. Race to the bottom underway.
-Utiliities. Maybe.
-Materials. They follow the industrials.
All in all, there's not much left to chase for the time being. Unless tech saves us all again.
I think the markets need to just consolidate and redistribute a bit. Too much going on in the world. Too much uncertainty.
I think B1's bear... although it may not be real bad bear.... he might lumber out of his den here pretty soon and get a bite to eat. He's napped enough.
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How about utilities and higher energy prices?
Industrials and a stronger dollar?
None too appetizing.
How about the Fed providing easy money? Is this the key driver? The end all and be all? Easy Fed policy seems to take away a sense of value for many assets, doesn’t it? No way to get comfortable. Too bad current economic growth numbers are not a providing a solid basis for higher stock prices.
Economic cycles have value. They curb excessive speculation that can threaten financial systems. Economic cycles provide outsized investment returns for the agile.
Some have a lot of debt and some have a lot of liquidity that is sitting idle. This would seem to indicate there is great potential for price changes in either direction for various asset classes. A change in investor confidence would likely have a outsized impact on prices now.
All in all, I would not discount your feelings, even if they end up being an.early indicator.
yes i think bears are starting to come out of hibernation. may be we will see bear action for a week.
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B1's "bear" has been in bull drag since he announced it months ago. Some day it will be a real bear and there will be little doubt when it appears.
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