ES Journal - 2017/2018

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Specterx said:
Certainly my expectations for this December were way off. But that's a good example of why it doesn't pay to "insist" too much in trading, and why an opinion ain't a position...

Not going to complain one bit about the elevated volatility, though.
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Opinions have no place in trading.
Vol is a traders dream! Get away with so much more and can make/lose a bunch of $$$
 
Looking soely at the chart some price correction might be seen, but generally huge probability on bearish side. We shall see, but for now is in line with fundamentals..
 
mbondy said:
I was around in 08.

If I'm not mistaken, some data would indicate that retail did a massive retreat from the market in Jan-Feb of 2018 and then again in August-Sept which has been earmarked as the reason for the big drop earlier this year and again later so on that topic, we are on opposite ends.

I've not seen any indication that margin debt is as you describe especially relative to previous market routs.
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I know your personality type, so I won't continue with this back and forth. Here is your margin debt chart:

716083fd9f0ad0d376599672e9a6390a.png
 
schweiz said:
After the 2008-2009 crash, the biggest drawdown of the ES was 18.322% (8/8/2011).
Today we are at a drawdown of 17.829%. Top was 09/21/2018.
Under Trump's presidency we will probably make the biggest drop after the 2008-2009 crash. When the markets went up it was, according to Trump, because he was such a good president. This drop he will probably not claim... it will probably be fake news or incompetent people in govenment, FED or SEC.
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You let your political bias seperate you from reality.
 
schweiz said:
You can check my calculations yourself. They are correct.
When the market went up, Trump told it was thanks to him.
http://fortune.com/2017/08/08/donald-trump-stock-market-factors/

When the market goes down he wants to kick out the head of the FED.

I show reality, you are biased.
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The reality is that the market started up the night Trump was elected in anticipation of his promised economic policies which he did implement which then fueled the market to historic highs. The Fed trying to cool this economic growth for fear of inflation has encumbered the market with interest rate increase after increase after increase after increase and more promised. It is having its effect on the market and hopefully it does not cause the country to head into recession. The entire elite hate Trump so much that it is not beyond my suscpicious mind they they would gladly trash the economy into a long overdue recession to insure that Trump is defeated in 2020.
 
Illini Trader said:
...The entire elite hate Trump so much that it is not beyond my suscpicious mind they they would gladly trash the economy into a long overdue recession to insure that Trump is defeated in 2020.
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Good riddance to bad trash IMHO.

All things aside, what were the two key factors that led to this debacle?

Trump's beloved tax cuts for which the gubment had no way to fund, thus causing the Fed to raise rates to bring in more money to pay for said cuts, and Trump's trade war tariff stuff, which leads to stifling of other countries' domestic output and input. This leads everyone to conclude that global economic growth will be going down, which make domestic company outlooks go down, which makes forecasters revise estimates, which which which etc etc ad infinitum. Not to mention those cuts all expire in 2025, conveniently when he is no longer in office. Talk about a signpost up ahead. Rod Serling would have a ball in his writing were he still alive.

It is the butterfly effect. Trump screwed the pooch on this. He went for the short-term gain without looking at the bigger picture. He wanted the instant gratification without thinking of the lasting effects.

Sounds suspiciously like a user of heroin or cocaine, eh?
 
Overnight said:
Good riddance to bad trash IMHO.

All things aside, what were the two key factors that led to this debacle?

Trump's beloved tax cuts for which the gubment had no way to fund, thus causing the Fed to raise rates to bring in more money to pay for said cuts, and Trump's trade war tariff stuff, which leads to stifling of other countries' domestic output and input. This leads everyone to conclude that global economic growth will be going down, which make domestic company outlooks go down, which makes forecasters revise estimates, which which which etc etc ad infinitum. Not to mention those cuts all expire in 2025, conveniently when he is no longer in office. Talk about a signpost up ahead. Rod Serling would have a ball in his writing were he still alive.

It is the butterfly effect. Trump screwed the pooch on this. He went for the short-term gain without looking at the bigger picture. He wanted the instant gratification without thinking of the lasting effects.

Sounds suspiciously like a user of heroin or cocaine, eh?
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WSJ of all news papers published this today.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-ye...cut-seem-muted-11545494400?mod=hp_major_pos11

WASHINGTON—Twelve months after Congress cut business tax rates and sped up deductions to set off a capital spending boom, the results are proving modest at best.

A broad measure of business investment surged earlier in the year, but slowed since. It swung in part not because of tax policy, but in line with shifts in energy prices. Moreover, shipments of capital goods have tailed off after rising robustly early in the year and industrial capacity is rising modestly.

“The tax package did not stimulate or spark a boom in business investment,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for consulting firm Oxford Economics. “There’s been an acceleration,” he added, “but if we’re honest with ourselves, we have to look back at when it started and what’s been driving it.”
 
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