Still need a little more time to confirm if we are in a bear market or not. We have creased 2530, but we have not had an attack upwards on it yet to be able to see if it holds as resistance.I also believe it will happen in the future, but seeing how bottoms are called daily on ET now - these calls no longer have any validity when they finally happen.
If we see a huge up move. Read: reversal. Followed by a minor retrace, a higher low and new highs. Maybe I'll join you guys on a 'the bottom is in' call. Hell, we can easily see a 100 to 200 point up move and still be in bear mode.
For now, the trend remains down and until that changes - no need to call a bottom. As always, a good trader needs to be prepared for the most basic scenarios and a few unlikely ones.
ES Journal - 2017/2018
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Super glad that I did.
I register that some of the people who insisted we were in a minor correction back then now seem to be of a different opinion.
Hard to argue with facts, now. We are down nearly 20%. Over 300 of the s&p stocks are down greater than 20%, some near 40%. This is a major correction. Only time will tell if it turns into a sustained bear market, personally, I still don't see it. Whether or not you acknowledge it, markets don't move up or down based on arbitrary inputs like technical indicators or other kinds of silliness that are often espoused here. Big money with long-term economic outlooks move markets and the horizon is still pretty sunny right now. Glad to see the market get a haircut, would be happy to jump back in on signs of consistent strength and will wait for the market to reinforce that view before I make any moves. So far, every time I dip my toe in the tide goes out again
Super glad that I did.
Hard to argue with facts, now. We are down nearly 20%. Over 300 of the s&p stocks are down greater than 20%, some near 40%. This is a major correction. Only time will tell if it turns into a sustained bear market, personally, I still don't see it. Whether or not you acknowledge it, markets don't move up or down based on arbitrary inputs like technical indicators or other kinds of silliness that are often espoused here. Big money with long-term economic outlooks move markets and the horizon is still pretty sunny right now. Glad to see the market get a haircut, would be happy to jump back in on signs of consistent strength and will wait for the market to reinforce that view before I make any moves. So far, every time I dip my toe in the tide goes out again
Not a bear mkt! Dude come on. Don’t cloud your thinking with nonsense like that. You are way smarter than that.
2410 Closing Price was my last entry in my blotter last nite.. after crunching my numbers, literally!
My 2375-80 Target is just around the bend!
My 2375-80 Target is just around the bend!
Now you`re going the right way.....
Glad I stuck around & spanked this pig... See you at 2375-80 Monday!
Screaming Buy Zone just below my Target Price... Do your homework to see what I mean & prepare to make an easy 100-200 Handles!
This has actually been a surprise to me in this thread this year. The fact that many people didn't even consider the possibillity that a major top was in and a major down move in motion.
It's not like it's something that hasn't happened many times already in history.
Of course I acknowledge that major trends are not sustained because of technical analysis or signals. I sure hope not anyone else think so either. But I prefer to let price or technical signals show me what's happening in the market and what the major trend is or what 'big money' as you call it is doing. If it can be combined with a fundamental analysis, then all the better.
It doesn't matter if all our analysis and opinion say that a market should be going up and that the economic outlook is strong - when all evidence including price right in front of our eyes says the market is going DOWN.
The same goes for people shorting a rising market. We've seen enough of that in this relentless bull also. In trading - timing is everything. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and all that stuff.
Of course I acknowledge that major trends are not sustained because of technical analysis or signals. I sure hope not anyone else think so either. But I prefer to let price or technical signals show me what's happening in the market and what the major trend is or what 'big money' as you call it is doing. If it can be combined with a fundamental analysis, then all the better.
It doesn't matter if all our analysis and opinion say that a market should be going up and that the economic outlook is strong - when all evidence including price right in front of our eyes says the market is going DOWN.
The same goes for people shorting a rising market. We've seen enough of that in this relentless bull also. In trading - timing is everything. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and all that stuff.
I agree with you, especially with respect to the fact that the market is going DOWN irrespective of my view which is why, although I have reason to be bullish, I'm staying out until I see the market substantiating my thoughts. I regret not shorting but at this point I'm ambivalent about jumping in... so unless I see hysteria, I'll stay out.
We've been down at these percentage levels about 6 or 7 times in the last 10 years. Are you insinuating that those were all bear markets? In my eye, this is a much needed correction and will hopefully be a short-lived one at that.
The last 6 to 7 times over the last 10 yrs are different this time around. Rates are now higher, QE is being withdrawn here and in Europe, record low unemployment, inflation, etc...the list goes on and on.
We could get a bounce higher when hitting 2330-2400. How high will we go...2700-2770 then selling resumes into 2019 and hitting 1500’s by 2020. I’m not big valuation guy. I believe in patterns and also believe in mkt staying irrational longer than you and I can stay solvent.
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