ES Journal - 2017/2018

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beerntrading said:
LHs, LLs...trend in tact. Options markets have been mixed lately and I'm blowing trades at a higher percentage than usual. I look at that as a changing of the guard. We already have AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG earnings out, and market hasn't taken the chance to go up. That said, I see no fundamental shift that would necessarily end a bull market and start a bearish one.
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Not following you. Are you saying this is just a pullback?
 
mastacoli71 said:
Not following you. Are you saying this is just a pullback?
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I'm saying my confidence (well, that's not really the right word, anymore) in this bull market is at its lowest point in more than 9 years. My portfolio has slowly drifted to being much more conservative, and actually has had negative deltas recently. I'm not suggesting the options activity is inherently bullish or bearish--just that its mixed and there's no clear path forward in either direction...so I default back to the downtrend being in tact and place higher value on short signals than long.

...which is a really fancy way of saying, I don't know. I'm not ready to proclaim my bearishness from the rooftops, but I'll quietly admit I haven't been at this game long enough to have a portfolio that looks like this (with respects to bear-neutral stance).
 
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