ES Journal - 2017/2018

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mbondy said:
Come again?
I could give a sh!t what the 200 day average is saying because it has zero impact on my decision making.

I'm not going to school you on all of the economic variables that usually collide to incite a bear market - do your own homework.
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Yield curve is very close to being flat. 5% mortgage rates is putting pressure on housing prices. Housing stocks are down on average 40% from highs and once again consumers are over leveraged. This is the “perfect storm” with very high probability of hitting. I believe this is what is causing the current sell off and will proliferate.

Lower end of the range you speak about in my opinion is 2500-2600 so plenty of downside from here.
 
mastacoli71 said:
Yield curve is very close to being flat. 5% mortgage rates is putting pressure on housing prices. Housing stocks are down on average 40% from highs and once again consumers are over leveraged. This is the “perfect storm” with very high probability of hitting. I believe this is what is causing the current sell off and will proliferate.

Lower end of the range you speak about in my opinion is 2500-2600 so plenty of downside from here.
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An inversion of the yield curve generally predates a bear market. We are not there yet.
5% mortgage rates *might* help to bring housing valuations back to earth but again, 5% is literally the old easy credit. This isn't exactly scary stuff.
Consumers being over-leveraged is nothing new.

Honestly, the market is still blowing off the Fed. This isn't so much a sell off as a consolidation. Large traders are enjoying the range and once we base, we're going back up just as quick as we came down. I don't see any actual catalysts to inspire a market breakdown... yet. Just a bunch of panicky investors.
 
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