ES Journal - 2017/2018

manonfire · Aug 29, 2018

manonfire said:
Without knowing position and account size it’s impossible to know his actual return. He is really just long the s&p 500, we don’t know if it’s leveraged or not. If he’s long 5 cars in a $2,000,000 account with the rest in cash he would be underperforming the benchmark. No one knows and none ones business.

Some days I feel like I had a great day. But if the market moved up 1% or greater and I happened to be heavy on cash I can easily underperform, not so fun when you look at it that way. If I was trading a $10,000 account with $500 day trade margins it would be incredible I suppose.

treeman · Aug 29, 2018

manonfire said:
Without knowing position and account size it’s impossible to know his actual return. He is really just long the s&p 500, we don’t know if it’s leveraged or not. If he’s long 5 cars in a $2,000,000 account with the rest in cash he would be underperforming the benchmark. No one knows and none ones business.

Even if he's 3:1 on this. Plus his CL. He's up that much. He’s not in and out, just in

maximumpossiblesuffering · Aug 29, 2018

MidwesternTrader said:
Turn this thought into a trading strategy so it doesn't impact your intraday ES trading. I'm also in the boat expecting a 10% snap correction at some point before end of the year, so here is how I'm trading it.

Allocate 1% of your trading capital every two weeks to buy deep out of the money QQQ puts and VIX calls.

Tomorrow I'll be putting on my second one of these. My first using QQQ SEP 07 176 puts and VIX SEP 11 25 calls is going to expire worthless. I plan to put this on up to 10 times the next 5 months until the correction hits once. A planned 10% capital outlay. But its impossible to predict these corrections with any accuracy, so you need to plan this trade until one does hit, if it does at all. If it hits earlier in my planned 5 month cycle, I'll make out nice on the trade.

What I will be adding tomorrow:

QQQ SEP 14 180 Puts @ .40
VIX SEP 18 24 Calls @ .20

5 QQQ puts for every 1 VIX Call.

Select QQQ puts about 5% below the last high expiration 2 - 3 weeks out. The snap corrections usually take about 10 trading days to fully play out and will usually only go about -10% deep at its lowest intraday level, but the price you will need near expiration is a drop of -7% to make a 10 to 1 profit margin on QQQ puts. So a QQQ snap correction needs to settle out around $174 from here for that 10 to 1 profit margin to be hit on this next tranche.

The VIX Calls are just a pure gamble cause even with a snap correction no telling where the VRO settlement will end up at expiration. They expire on Wednesday like at 9AM with the VRO settlement. When these corrections occur they tend to climax on Monday / Tuesday after the public figures out there has been a big drop in their portfolios the previous week. So with some luck the VIX spikes early the next week to get some profit on those VIX calls. The upside is this can be a stupid big profit for corrections

This approach can also be used by BTFDers pyramiding long positions on each pullback as a hedge. Take a portion of you latest unrealized gains to set these up to protect against the dip turning into a correction.

Personally, I'm waiting for a China - US trade agreement before shorting for a swing trade. That day might start off with a nice, long green bar on the daily only to close lower.

Also known as selling the news, the market participants may soon focus more on economic growth concerns out of Asia and developing countries.

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Personally, I'm waiting for a China - US trade agreement before shorting for a swing trade. That day might start off with a nice, long green bar on the daily only to close lower.

Also known as selling the news, the market participants may soon focus more on economic growth concerns out of Asia and developing countries.

I don't really wait or pay attention to news. I believe that any news is reflected in the market's price and direction. ---Perception of news is what the market works off of---

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

For example--- If news is bad in an upmarket, price will pull back and then continue to rise. If news is bad in a downmarket, then price will drop in a stronger fashion and continue downward. Rocketmoon believes that he sees tops literally every 15 minutes. He's a bright, energetic and decent being, but will be wrong until he's not.

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

treeman said:
Even if he's 3:1 on this. Plus his CL. He's up that much. He’s not in and out, just in

Your greatest profits are with the trend using leverage and for the most part, sitting on your hands. Most traders or would be traders, are unable to let scenarios play out.

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

manonfire said:
Some days I feel like I had a great day. But if the market moved up 1% or greater and I happened to be heavy on cash I can easily underperform, not so fun when you look at it that way. If I was trading a $10,000 account with $500 day trade margins it would be incredible I suppose.

Must let profits run and cut losses immediately. My best day trades have been when I have been stopped out and I get right back in within 3 to 5 minutes in the same direction.

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

beerntrading said:
Yes, but the point is to be long when it does, and short when it doesn't.

Correct in spades

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

MidwesternTrader said:
Turn this thought into a trading strategy so it doesn't impact your intraday ES trading. I'm also in the boat expecting a 10% snap correction at some point before end of the year, so here is how I'm trading it.

Allocate 1% of your trading capital every two weeks to buy deep out of the money QQQ puts and VIX calls.

Tomorrow I'll be putting on my second one of these. My first using QQQ SEP 07 176 puts and VIX SEP 11 25 calls is going to expire worthless. I plan to put this on up to 10 times the next 5 months until the correction hits once. A planned 10% capital outlay. But its impossible to predict these corrections with any accuracy, so you need to plan this trade until one does hit, if it does at all. If it hits earlier in my planned 5 month cycle, I'll make out nice on the trade.

What I will be adding tomorrow:

QQQ SEP 14 180 Puts @ .40
VIX SEP 18 24 Calls @ .20

5 QQQ puts for every 1 VIX Call.

Select QQQ puts about 5% below the last high expiration 2 - 3 weeks out. The snap corrections usually take about 10 trading days to fully play out and will usually only go about -10% deep at its lowest intraday level, but the price you will need near expiration is a drop of -7% to make a 10 to 1 profit margin on QQQ puts. So a QQQ snap correction needs to settle out around $174 from here for that 10 to 1 profit margin to be hit on this next tranche.

The VIX Calls are just a pure gamble cause even with a snap correction no telling where the VRO settlement will end up at expiration. They expire on Wednesday like at 9AM with the VRO settlement. When these corrections occur they tend to climax on Monday / Tuesday after the public figures out there has been a big drop in their portfolios the previous week. So with some luck the VIX spikes early the next week to get some profit on those VIX calls. The upside is this can be a stupid big profit for corrections

This approach can also be used by BTFDers pyramiding long positions on each pullback as a hedge. Take a portion of you latest unrealized gains to set these up to protect against the dip turning into a correction.

Interesting and thank you for the thoughtful posting, but why not just develop keen directional knowledge and ride the wave. Your suggestion is to build an anti-position and then be covered if it goes against you.---I can't agree with this and feel it is defeatist in absolute nature.

Buy1Sell2 · Aug 30, 2018

treeman said:
You should be happy about that. If you are that confident, you should open up a big short position. I won’t mind taking your money

I don't care for the challenging aroma of your posting and feel that a stronger high line could have been taken here.