ES Journal - 2017/2018

[Laissez Faire]

Continuing long here. There is no obvious reason to be short other than an hour or two at a time.

Mind saying what you're looking at? What's the obvious reason for being long?

It's always healthy to at least entertain two potential scenarios at any given point in time even if the other one is weighted far more probable...

 

[rocketman987]

Will the close save the longs, we have two hrs to figure it out

 

[Laissez Faire]

We're still red on the day and a push up to 2732 would be a common pattern here, IMO. It does however need to happen soon and we shouldn't go much lower than this, IMO.

I could of course be wrong and we end up with a really nice slide from here.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Setting up many traps for the bears here. Trend line break. Mini H&S now. But I remain convinced we go higher...

Keeps slowing down at the Open though.

 

[Handle123]

Sometimes too difficult to trade and post as I get many signals.
Traded sells H&S on the one minute which lead to double right shoulder to add more lots and looking to rev at 26.50 if it swings back up.
rev long 25.75
dumped half at 4 ticks
ps 25.75
exited all at 27.25

 

[mastacoli71]

Do you hedge your longer term position?

I sell short term weekly puts against it. I guess one can call that a hedge.

 

[manonfire]

Everyone I follow is expecting grind higher to 2740+ tomorrow just like last Wednesday everyone was calling for grind to 2750 for opex. Odd's certainly favor it tomorrow but the boat is loaded almost elusively to one side.

 

[manonfire]

If we gap up big vix will be at inflection point. The mechanism to suppress it any lower is broken. Can't have everything anymore.

 

[beerntrading]

Everyone I follow is expecting grind higher to 2740+ tomorrow just like last Wednesday everyone was calling for grind to 2750 for opex. Odd's certainly favor it tomorrow but the boat is loaded almost elusively to one side.

Options have been bullish as hell recently...I don't think I've seen a put/call ratio as high as two (and the majority under .5) in the active options in the last 7 days. Lots of short term 50-delta plays looking for buying to snowball through the day into a strongly bullish rally.

There isn't any institutional buying propping us up though...there's been tacit and isolated moves, but nothing market-wide. Not sure how to read that. The bears haven't taken control (which they usually do when institutional fails top step in to confirm a rally), but nor have the bulls.

Fly away in May, maybe?

 

[Handle123]

I sell short term weekly puts against it. I guess one can call that a hedge.

Well, I wouldn't call it much of a hedge at all unless it covers your entire loss on the recent loss?