ES Journal - 2017/2018

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Spooz Top 2 said:
Mbondy, Interesting.....
So what you`re saying is that is`t going to make it`s move South Bound before we can build out into an Apex?

How do you know that this seller is " Selling to Open " a Short position... vs off loading existing longs or building into a Spread?

Im interested in hearing what you have to say, man.. good stuff
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Experience, I guess. The technique I was seeing is typical of someone building into a position, not unwinding one.

I got long after the dip down this morning and was actually expecting higher prices today but when the seller wouldn't get out of the way and kept selling size into rallies and at the highs, I thought 'uh oh'. He sold right into the close.
 
mbondy said:
Experience, I guess. The technique I was seeing is typical of someone building into a position, not unwinding one.

I got long after the dip down this morning and was actually expecting higher prices today but when the seller wouldn't get out of the way and kept selling size into rallies and at the highs, I thought 'uh oh'. He sold right into the close.
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Could be hedging a pit contract or other index position
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
60 proves it`s Pivot Worthiness right out of the gate & held for reaffirmation for Bullys... That said, I firmly believe that we see /kiss that lower Trend/Support line off this 350 Handle Wedge that we are building starting from Feb Lows for a proper build out.

Hourly is worth looking at as it`s a potential 60 Handle, Cup & Handle, formation building out as we`re working on the handle now.

Summary: which TL do we get first... either one is an extremely low risk entry with an exceptionally Hi RR.

Back from Vaca on Monday... so hope we get a shot in the arm with some juiced up Vol.

- Play it tight to the Vest & your head on a swivel,
-Steve
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Weekly chart shows classic symmetrical triangle pattern. SPY Volume bar from week of Feb 5 tells me probs are we breaking out downwards. If not have my stop in place and will look to get long on pullback.

We won’t need to wait very long as trianlge has reached its apex. Buckle up!
 
Here`s the Daily Apex buildout on ES... As you can see, the Daily has some room to move before decision time... The only thing that really concerns me on the downside break is that too many are expecting it... as a contrarian, that concerns me greatly!

Screenshot (50).png
 
I like to try & envision how a move will formulate.... That said, I`m looking for a false move North/ Wyckoff Thrust above the TL & potentially above the 2720 previous swing hi... followed by a quick move straight down to the lower TL/ Support line & a bust straight thru it.

Anyone else want to take a random stab at this upcoming break PA? I would really like to hear
what you guys are expecting as a whole, so don`t hold back... all for fun... until the Scarole is on the line.
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
I like to try & envision how a move will formulate.... That said, I`m looking for a false move North/ Wyckoff Thrust above the TL & potentially above the 2720 previous swing hi... followed by a quick move straight down to the lower TL/ Support line & a bust straight thru it.

Anyone else want to take a random stab at this upcoming break PA? I would really like to hear
what you guys are expecting as a whole, so don`t hold back... all for fun... until the Scarole is on the line.
More...


I’m expecting something similar, ‘pin’ formation. Bias still negative even with this wedge formation.
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
I like to try & envision how a move will formulate.... That said, I`m looking for a false move North/ Wyckoff Thrust above the TL & potentially above the 2720 previous swing hi... followed by a quick move straight down to the lower TL/ Support line & a bust straight thru it.

Anyone else want to take a random stab at this upcoming break PA? I would really like to hear
what you guys are expecting as a whole, so don`t hold back... all for fun... until the Scarole is on the line.
More...

Exactly what I was expecting this week into next, didn’t see the trip to the 200 materializing by makes sense in hindsight. It always does and where ladies like Lawrence lugar do their best work.

A break of 2680 Monday should put us to 2720 area for fed announcement Wednesday. Same level as 3/21 Fed meeting. That 2745 high would be tempting to break as well. From there i have to go with the fed induced price action but I am plotting a course south as well.
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
I like to try & envision how a move will formulate.... That said, I`m looking for a false move North/ Wyckoff Thrust above the TL & potentially above the 2720 previous swing hi... followed by a quick move straight down to the lower TL/ Support line & a bust straight thru it.

Anyone else want to take a random stab at this upcoming break PA? I would really like to hear
what you guys are expecting as a whole, so don`t hold back... all for fun... until the Scarole is on the line.
More...

I'll take a stab. I'm your contrary person on the bull side.

Following your Wycoff terminology, I think if it heads for that TL (2720), we've jumped across the creek, and the bull is on. If not, then we consolidate for a bit longer with a spring reaccumulation in phase c, which we aren't in yet. I think it's the latter.

Basically, I'm looking for it to go October 10 '98 on us, and break below 2532. It wouldn't surprise me to see 2490 (3/09 TL). I've got my knife gloves on just in case (I will look for confirmation), and I'm thinking about a mini-plunge if we get there. Eventually, we see new a.t. highs.

For me, the weight of the evidence is overall bullish.
 
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