Correct, it is not our job as individual traders to "move" markets although collectively we "make" markets. Our job is to recognize the likely direction of markets (the institutions leave no shortage of clues as to their intentions). Our rules manage those expectations....whether our assessments of direction prove right or wrong, trade by trade.
ES Journal - 2017/2018
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@pinabetal lets just agree to disagree and move forward.
Hft's are responsible for about 70% of daily vol in say the ES, other institutions such a hedge funds..banks..pension funds...etc make up about 25%. We, the retail traders, make up about 5%. The markets are a battle between the bullish institutions and the bearish institutions. They are more concerned with taking money from each other. They care very little about us. We are potatoe chip money to them. And, as you say they cannot hide what they are doing. The PA on the chart reveals it all. However, it is even uncertain amongst them who will "make" the market. But their footprints leave us with some probability but even then they can make footprints and backtrack in them so to speak. We cannot know all the tactics they use. There is alot of uncertainty. The charts simply reveal who is winning. If we wish to be profitable but have to go with who is winning regardless of what our rules tell us. Rules can only be general guidelines at best. Rules cannot "make the market". They can be helpful to guide us in our interpretation of the market but the moment we "see" they are wrong in a particular circumstance then the only thing to do, the correct thing to do, to be profitable, is to cast them off as a heavy anchor and go with the flow. Put another way.....the market is always correct. Our rules are often times wrong.
Ok. i gotta go algofly..however, i think we may be agreeing in many many ways. But there is uncertainty.
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