ES Journal - 2017/2018
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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futures have some extra noise.. than the ETF...
ETF lines..
expect a test of the moving average zone if the near term line fails.
ETF lines..
expect a test of the moving average zone if the near term line fails.
Because of his durn rules! LOL
As long as price with its pull backs stayed below the ma every flag i would short or add to a short position because the odds favored continued wedge failures i.e. they would just become bear flags and movement would probally continue down. Of course, no one knows for certain and cannot know for certain but odds favor SOUTH..because the IS showed itself to be weak. No flag could reach the ma.
As to when i would have started shorting failed wedge bottoms...well..at the very first failure because odds favor two legs of movement in the unexpected direction when a wedge fails.
As far as rules. My rules give me entries for wedge bottoms trading on the long side. So I generally look to follow them if the context indicates i should. But if price does the opposite then i flip to the short side. That is not a rule but just discretionary trading based upon what price action does. I may choose to do nothing and just skip the trade if the context (to the left) idicates that the failed wedge bottom may end UP failing itself because the prev price action showed more strenght than weakness. LOL. That is the challenge and uncertainty of trading. RULES DON'T MAKE THE MARKET NOR DOES THE MARKET KNOW ABOUT THEM NOR DOES IT CARE ABOUT THEM. IN THE CASE OF OUR FRIEND 2sell if the market gives me 14 points or 6 points or even 3 points I am taking them unless the context indicates to me there is a higher probability that more is forth coming. And by that i am not talking about another signal to get out of my position but i am talking about PA (the IS) talking me out of my position. I am open to taking profit or open to staying in just on the strenght of the PA and not on some predefined exit signal based upon some trading rule. However, i do understand some of what we are talking about could just be semantics. But any rule that would cause me to give up a 6 point intraday profit just because i didn't see my special exit trigger ....then ....to me, that is a dumb rule and i am not being very smart to watch my 6 points disappear and turn into a 3 point loss just because i did not see my exit signal. In such a case i would be trading my rules and not trading the market! I cannot demand the market give me exit signals. I have to take whatever it gives me especially when the context indicates the move is over or weakening.
He had no less than 1 opportunity to get out at 2267 and 4 opportunities to get out at 2266.50 yet he didn't take it because of some rule. The context was saying get out. I don't understand his logic for riding the loss down. This is intraday trading not weekly. You grab what the market gives you. Too much "mean".... pun intended... reversion.
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Yesterday was a good day. The bottom was correctly identified in the 2257 area and trade management worked out the way I wanted it to.
Can you please go away like Big Mac and just let b1s2 do his thing here without being second guessed constantly.
Thanks Magna! He'll be welcome to create postings here again in a while without the vitriol--Izzy
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