ES Journal - 2017/2018

Handle123 · Jan 12, 2017

Volatility too high for me to scalp morning session, maybe in couple hours it will settle.

Buy1Sell2 · Jan 12, 2017

---01/09 Monday early afternoon Swing trade short 2267.00 Initial stop 2276.00
---01/12 Thurs late morning Price currently 2252.00 I remain short here.

tiddlywinks · Jan 12, 2017

pinabetal said:
One cannot box the market up into a set of defined rules. The market is "alive" so to speak and every day is different than the other. The market knows nothing of our rules. It does what it is going to do 100% ignorant of your rules or mine. It is we who must observe what the market is doing and follow it as it is not us who define the market. To some degree there is probabilty but rarely more than 60%. I do not trade on rules. I trade on my observation of market action coupled with probability and can change my mind on a dime if the market does something unexpected or a probable trade fails. For instance, if the context is good for a wedge top reversal and i think there is a 60% chance a reversal will follow the wedge top and a reversal does indeed happen and i take the trade but then the reversal immediatley fails then i will exit and reverse direction simply because odds favor a wedge top "failure" to move fast and have two legs in the opposite direction of the original anticipated direction.

As goes the 14 points someone mentioned in a previous post well .....i would have taken the 14 points profit ..screw..the rules. The market was giving me a gift. If i regard any rule it is the rule that in the final analysis the market and only the market "rules". The main area for rules for me is in my risk. Entries and exits are based upon live market action and probability. I don't always take every signal and entry simply because no two seemingly exact signals and entry are in the SAME exact context. The market tells its own story and i take signals and entries that fit in the story and have a reasonable chance of succeeding. I do not slavishly take every signal. There are simply too many variables. I look at what the context is telling me and what the signal and entry is telling me and consider the probabilty of a potential trade being successful as opposed to failing. I then define my risk with a SL for that particular context and probabilty, and assign a probable profit target but even that PT can change if my actual risk ends up being less than my original risk as the trade unfolds. I simply do not slavishly stick to a PT but I allow "actual unfolding PA" to MODIFY OR CHANGE even my original PT. For instance, if my profit target is 5 points and as the trade unfolds and moves in my favor but price stalls at 4 points and the context changes and tells me the move is probably over well i will take the 4 points and not let a "made profit" retrace into a loss just because my original PT was not reached.

To each their own i guess......

Good post @pinabetal.

Most Elites will not "get it", as evidenced by the comment by @speedo. I had a similar convo elsewhere on ET, with a Topstepper. At first he praised the concept. He slept on it, and came back to question if I even traded!! My scribbling was different from yours, more pithy, but the gist, every trade is different, rules are always adjustable, the market is always right, minimize losses and/or take what the market is offering through those adjustable rules, was all there. Most people encountered on ET are just mentally stuck.

Again, good post @pinabetal.

Buy1Sell2 · Jan 12, 2017

Markets do not change because human behavior never changes. The same set of rules that applied yesterday applies today. Successful trading is about losing a little when wrong and winning more when right over the long haul.

tiddlywinks · Jan 12, 2017

Buy1Sell2 said:
Markets do not change because human behavior never changes. The same set of rules that applied yesterday applies today. Successful trading is about losing a little when wrong and winning more when right over the long haul.

I agree 100%, but with the following "adjustment".
The advent of the cell phone is no different than the advent of the telegraph of yore. The rise of the likes of Google and Facebook, is no different than the rise of the rails in the days of yore. Time however has changed financial products, the level of "sophistication" of said products, and the ability for the masses to participate with those financial products in a plethora of non-traditional ways. Does buy and hold work? If personal and/or life milestones are not considered, sure, why wouldn't it?

Buy1Sell2 · Jan 12, 2017

tiddlywinks said:
I agree 100%, but with the following "adjustment".
The advent of the cell phone is no different than the advent of the telegraph of yore. The rise of the likes of Google and Facebook, is no different than the rise of the rails in the days of yore. Time however has changed financial products, the level of "sophistication" of said products, and the ability for the masses to participate with those financial products in a plethora of non-traditional ways. Does buy and hold work? If personal and/or life milestones are not considered, sure, why wouldn't it?

As I said in an earlier posting, the logistics have changed, the markets haven't.

Buy1Sell2 · Jan 12, 2017

Back and fill going on now in the market. ---Typical--- Nice little rally in the short swing. Let's see how long the back and fill lasts or if it morphs.

Handle123 · Jan 12, 2017

tiddlywinks said:
I agree 100%, but with the following "adjustment".
The advent of the cell phone is no different than the advent of the telegraph of yore. The rise of the likes of Google and Facebook, is no different than the rise of the rails in the days of yore. Time however has changed financial products, the level of "sophistication" of said products, and the ability for the masses to participate with those financial products in a plethora of non-traditional ways. Does buy and hold work? If personal and/or life milestones are not considered, sure, why wouldn't it?

So what you saying is if the market shows a profit that is more than what "bumps" normally happen, regardless of duration of time you trade by, you should void the rules you live by and take the profit? Is that be the same of like my long term method where I might stay in a trade over five years in Commodity market as well? I trade monthlies off that, so I should negate target 100 point moves in the ES for dozen points? And what if there is no re-entry signal after that short gain then watch it tumble to 100 points, should I be all happy I broken my rules for lousy dozen points?

There are some systems by some traders who back test the hell out of their systems and are very rigid cause of the results of their work and personality, cost me way too much early on as I tried to not do the work and go for marginal profits. I think most people don't get trading and agree with you but for different reasons.

People's beliefs might change, but dig out a wheat chart from late 1890's and see if you could trade it, I bet you can, and back then they just had pencil and ruler.

tiddlywinks · Jan 12, 2017

Handle123 said:
So what you saying is if the market shows a profit that is more than what "bumps" normally happen, regardless of duration of time you trade by, you should void the rules you live by and take the profit? Is that be the same of like my long term method where I might stay in a trade over five years in Commodity market as well? I trade monthlies off that, so I should negate target 100 point moves in the ES for dozen points? And what if there is no re-entry signal after that short gain then watch it tumble to 100 points, should I be all happy I broken my rules for lousy dozen points?

No, that's not what I said at all. I said if you do not consider personal and/or life milestones, sure, buy and hold works. A person entering retirement in say, 2007, would probably disagree. As would the armies of bears over the last 8 years or so. Or maybe even you... you have methods that "work" for you, but "what if" ... what if your 100pts maxes out at 86pts? You have a timetable AND a "backtested" target, personal milestones in context, and it is that combination that is very dangerous, as opposed to adjustment of your rules, which is applicable to all buy and hold, longer term or shorter term.

Handle123 · Jan 12, 2017

tiddlywinks said:
No, that's not what I said at all. I said if you do not consider personal and/or life milestones, sure, buy and hold works. A person entering retirement in say, 2007, would probably disagree. As would the armies of bears over the last 8 years or so. Or maybe even you... you have methods that "work" for you, but "what if" ... what if your 100pts maxes out at 86pts? You have a timetable AND a "backtested" target, personal milestones in context, and it is that combination that is very dangerous, as opposed to adjustment of your rules, which is applicable to all buy and hold, longer term or shorter term.

I DO understand what you are saying as I been down this road so many times. Just like many a trader with say a term of "leaving too much money on the table". It is a personal approach of going with the numbers, you either believe in what you have done or you change rules. Not so much of rules changed as I added options and learned to hedge open profits expecting possible retracements but maintaining the positions. But I have been using same rules for over couple decades concerning my targets and letting the rest run in very rigid rules. I guess in a way it is Buy and hold till it is reversing time. And yes, I still have some stocks I bought in the 1980s and have kept all this time, it is not so much as Buy and Hold like days of old, it is more like I bought very cheap and keep getting the dividends.

What do you do when you have reached all your milestones? Rotten at golf, hard to go for a walk, damn geese like play, might as well trade. And yep, past year I was few points from target and ran all way back to breakeven, made 60% on the options and tomorrow another day. I been shorting the Indexes on new contract highs for awhile, it is that last trade I don't want to miss.