ES Journal - 2017/2018

[wave]

Having 99% winrate doesnt mean much if your 1% of losers have a relatively high probability of wiping your account.

Not if you know how not to make that happen...reverse engineer your thinking

 

[Noone123]

Have time today for some intraday plays. Target 2725 hit. Exit long, looking for re-entry at lower price

 

[Handle123]

Having 99% winrate doesnt mean much if your 1% of losers have a relatively high probability of wiping your account.

Impossible to happen, I keep $3,000 in account for each lot I trade Indexes, that account has more as I do all long term at that exchange which am a member.

In my past, I have wiped out twice, never be a third time. Done much work in what will it take to wipe out again. Learned my lessons well on not being a hog. I been solvent since late 1991.

Automate systems always have wide protective stops but either based on science or charting, all my price bars are synthetics based on acceleration physics of price and volume. So I can have patterns that no one else might have like a H&S won't show up on general publics.

 

[Noone123]

Selling for a quick couple points.

 

[Pekelo]

There's a 25% probability it will even touch 2700 today.

The above sentence is completely useless... Or shall I say, meaningless.

 

[speedo]

This is really having a struggle working up through Monday afternoons mud.

 

[Noone123]

The above sentence is completely useless... Or shall I say, meaningless.

It is useless to you. Agreed. Not useless to me.

 

[Noone123]

Exit short...re-enter long.

 

[Pekelo]

It is useless to you. Agreed. Not useless to me.

OK, tell me how you trade it?!

You see, if you say, X has a 75% chance of happening, the translation of the 75% would be: quite likely, or more likely than not. So you would take a position in the direction of X.

But the translation of 25% (not to mention you just pulled that number out of your behind) is: not very likely.

You even put a target on a "not very likely" to happen event. That prediction was simply untradable, thus there was no info value in it.

Now if you were selling options... But we are futures traders here...

 

[Noone123]

OK, tell me how you trade it?!

You see, if you say, X has a 75% chance of happening, the translation of the 75% would be: quite likely, or more likely than not. So you would take a position in the direction of X.

But the translation of 25% (not to mention you just pulled that number out of your behind) is: not very likely.

You even put a target on a "not very likely" to happen event. That prediction was simply untradable, thus there was no info value in it.

Now if you were selling options... But we are futures traders here...

Look at my journal and see the results of how i traded it today.