ES has been trading between the 50% and 61.8% of the 2018.5o high to 2011.25 low. Almost everything since last night's globex close/re-open has suggested a break below rather than above that range, e.g. breadth, tick, NQ, YM ... All week I have thought we'd see 2600 or lower trade this week, and nothing has happened to dissuade me of that view.
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ES Journal - 2017/2018
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ES has been trading between the 50% and 61.8% of the 2018.5o high to 2011.25 low. Almost everything since last night's globex close/re-open has suggested a break below rather than above that range, e.g. breadth, tick, NQ, YM ... All week I have thought we'd see 2600 or lower trade this week, and nothing has happened to dissuade me of that view.
If a trade does not happen either cause of lack of time or possible new cycle, I will target one tick to allow others to pay my fees and lunches/dinners.
Gotcha. We both day trade, but you are more of a scalper, and I am more of a swing trader. Good luck to you!
I've always found it easier to just take the first loss and go with the flow of the market myself. I will occasionally "pull" or, rather "pause" a stop loss to make sure T&S is, in a sense, confirming the adverse move. But I will stop out rather than average a loser, everytime. Too much to make by just going with the flow, which means there is too much to lose by fighting it. I guess it works for some. But it would cause me no end of stress until I pulled the plug on the trade one way or the other.
I use cycles and I know I will be early most of the time, so averaging down has back tested 15 years to show me it works extremely well especially on breakeven plus one tick trades. I either never understood the feelings of fear or understood loss of money, I respect the markets, but I either mis-understood value of money long ago or never understood it. For the longest time, 98% of funds I trade for myself been in 401k LLC, and kept alive from working for our government three times, real estate rentals to the government, eight businesses I started and sold off and truck driving. I think when you can take the stresses off oneself, allows inner self not to get stressed out. But having other entities to keep busy has also mellowed out a little of the tension to not get frustrated when a loss happens, but I strive for as close to zero losses and in long term I strive for positive expectancy, which I have discovered can happen in stock markets. But have gone to automation now as memory is weaker now, plus I never actually enjoyed the manual part of trading and nor does my biz partner, so we both different problems associated to the unknown. I just have problems of being wrong, has nothing to do with the loss of money, and after 40 years of these feelings, doubt they ever go away. But automation I seldom even watch the markets, it trades 24/5.5 and around the world, nothing could be finer.
The recent system I have recently built is both scalper/day trading, it has nailed 35 point moves with up to several added on signals going with the trend, but when in controlled chop, it reverses constantly, so like in a 20 point range for the day, based on 2 lot, system averages more than twice the range but can be up to 65 trades, and very few losses. Taken me forever to have this method as I have turmoil within myself of frustration levels when I have losses, I do take them as flaws and start looking for patterns on how to get rid, but everyone has their own parts of themselves they try to change to get better.
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I think when you can take the stresses off oneself, allows inner self not to get stressed out.
Absolutely. When I started day trading I tried to go for a bunch of small hits but found the stress too great. Now I wait for a few set ups at what should be significant price levels and then based on Volatility and ATR I take 3 to 10 points on a paycheck portion and let the others run, unless there is a range that indicates there is no trade to a larger target level. I only get off one or two trades per day, and there are usually a few days per month where there is nothing for me.
Absolutely. When I started day trading I tried to go for a bunch of small hits but found the stress too great. Now I wait for a few set ups at what should be significant price levels and then based on Volatility and ATR I take 3 to 10 points on a paycheck portion and let the others run, unless there is a range that indicates there is no trade to a larger target level. I only get off one or two trades per day, and there are usually a few days per month where there is nothing for me.
I have automated 14 systems, and few actually scalp as I do in the 50 plus future markets, most are very long term and dance options around them and hedge open profits, very much how Buffett does it, but I have swings off dailies and 60 minutes but all get hedged, so initially have close to zero risk and sometimes positive expectancy, think long and hard enough, open minded and when many people say it can't be done, tells me it is being done and "they" don't ant you to discover it, LOL. Risk and drawdown is everything to me now, have next to nothing drawdowns, accounts goes up and don't have to beat the percentages of anything if you have far less drawdowns. The game has always been fun and until it stops being fun, be doing this another 40 years.
You sound like you doing well, so keep it up, love to hear others doing well.
Short 76 3 point stop
Just got my +10 points on my paycheck portion, and the runners will keep the 3 point stop loss.
Stop on runners moved to even ... bounces at this point should stay below 70 if the day's trend is to remain intact.
Stop on runners moved to even ... bounces at this point should stay below 70 if the day's trend is to remain intact.
Bounce fizzled at 70, but room from 62.75 pullback to 73; my short is from 76, and stop moved to 74 on runners. Going to lunch.
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