ES Journal - 2016

[Gotcha]

Thank you for that. I can accept that explanation. i am well aware of what makes sense based on the fed and QE/free money. However, I am one of those voodoo technicians that looks at price and indicators (that's right I said indicators,... I know it's a bad word around here on ET). My indicators seem to suggest that the market wants to go slowly higher. Probably only slowly because only Oil, commodities, miners, industrials, materials, small caps are trending higher pretty steadily but most other sectors are not. This is what my indicators tell me NOW. I am a firm believer that price tells most everything including what people think about the news. It doesn't matter that there is bad news if the market goes higher. In fact, when the market goes higher on bad new we should listen more closely. When the market heard the jobs report of 38K last week the market reacted by going down heavily only to recoup almost all those losses throughout the day and close slightly down. It has since recouped those loses and made a close near the high of the day today (2119 for S&P) at a level higher than 2 of the 3 highest highs in the last year. I could go on and on about all the indicators showing a new uptrend forming but most here don't believe these are useful. if you would like for me to elaborate I will.

In the end you are right all that really matters is that you make money. If my indicators turn negative again I will join all the chicken littles on this site. As a matter of fact my indicators told me to get out of the market in 8-21-2015. I was out of the market until 1-4-2016 when I shorted the market and FULLY expected a market crash of the S&P to go to 1730....thankfully that never happened. BUT I made 9% in January 2016. However, TODAY, RIGHT NOW,... I don't see it crashing.

Thanks Gotcha

You're welcome.

I don't think there is anything wrong with indicators. They actually help you be more impartial I think as opposed to letting your gut make a decision. But you also have to know exactly what that indicator is doing. It is after all just a derivative of price. When I look at charts, I find that some have indicators all over the place and I can't even see the price bars. Many don't know how to use indicators, myself included, so they might be just as useful as flipping a coin. If you know why your indicator is showing what its showing, and you know what to do with that info, then why not.

I absolutely agree that if the market goes higher on bad news, no way should anyone be short. I know lots of people get into the "short squeeze" type of explanation and who knows, maybe they are right, but it just doesn't change the fact that price is rising. Everyone always says to just look at what price is doing, and although its so cliche, and not really descriptive enough as to what to do about, it is still nevertheless the truth. If it should so happen that a rally is short lived and perhaps just pokes a previous high and drops hard, as if it was the end of the short squeeze, then this should be obvious in the price.

 

[eganon69]

You're welcome.

I don't think there is anything wrong with indicators. They actually help you be more impartial I think as opposed to letting your gut make a decision. But you also have to know exactly what that indicator is doing. It is after all just a derivative of price. When I look at charts, I find that some have indicators all over the place and I can't even see the price bars. Many don't know how to use indicators, myself included, so they might be just as useful as flipping a coin. If you know why your indicator is showing what its showing, and you know what to do with that info, then why not.

I absolutely agree that if the market goes higher on bad news, no way should anyone be short. I know lots of people get into the "short squeeze" type of explanation and who knows, maybe they are right, but it just doesn't change the fact that price is rising. Everyone always says to just look at what price is doing, and although its so cliche, and not really descriptive enough as to what to do about, it is still nevertheless the truth. If it should so happen that a rally is short lived and perhaps just pokes a previous high and drops hard, as if it was the end of the short squeeze, then this should be obvious in the price.

Agreed. However, If this were a short squeeze I would expect price to be more volatile and not so slow and incremental in rising. I also would expect the candle from today's close to be more like the high in Nov 2015 and April 2016 with a long wick showing we closed well off the highs. That shows there was capitulation of people losing their asses on the squeeze only to be out done when smarter players shorted at those highs. Today we have a long white candle with a tiny wick showing bullish sentiment all day to the close. Of course this is what some of my indicators tell me about price NOW (there are MANY others to support this notion). If suddenly there is a major reversal tomorrow or soon I will lock in my profits or minimize losses and reevaluate whether I sit out or to short. But ALOT has to happen to my indicators to make me feel that way. But again I could care less why it's happening. I am just a surfer riding the wave. I don't need to know the physics behind why the wave is there or why it's the size it is. I just need to know when it's dying out and find another wave.

 

[Handle123]

Not a bad time to write spx calls

I have learned that when weekly data are making quick spikes in one direction after an extended move, won't be for long till they end, so I look for patterns on two or one minute charts looking for possible reversals, then I do ES Put credit spreads and want to hedge my short position by doing ES Debit spreads and or SPY with 4 weeks left debit spreads. Sometimes the ES options are too expensive to me or not enough of them and nice to have SPY to do them. I will lift the short options at some point so end up with long Calls and same goes with Put CS of exiting long Put, when system say to add more short positions, I exit the options gotten into on lows. Some times timing not right and done too early, but I keep them and add at some point, but it not like betting the farm, you have to be reasonable in the risk. And for heaven sakes, don't get married to it, I have done some REAL DUMB moves in my life and have lost BIG TIME cause I make a stand, big DUMMY moves. Have a "Uncle" point of getting out instead of losing your entire account.

So am I correct that about 5 of you guys are all expecting a top here and shorting? Forgive me but I have not read this entire Journal.

Perhaps I am the only one, but my long term method will only allow me to take shorts, I am still short from May of last year, several rollovers, took off half the position at decent amount of 40 points, once I get to breakeven stops on original position, they never moved till I can start looking for reversal areas, and in mean time I take added shorts anything system says so and always hedge opening positions. Beats working at McDonalds and say "Would you like to Super Size this"? Hell yes if it is free and has no calories. I can't remember when I had a burger from them. If it wasn't for the sauces or condiments, you never taste anything, can you actually taste the cheese?

 

[eganon69]

...Perhaps I am the only one, but my long term method will only allow me to take shorts, I am still short from May of last year, several rollovers, took off half the position at decent amount of 40 points, once I get to breakeven stops on original position, they never moved till I can start looking for reversal areas, and in mean time I take added shorts anything system says so and always hedge opening positions. Beats working at McDonalds and say "Would you like to Super Size this"? Hell yes if it is free and has no calories. I can't remember when I had a burger from them. If it wasn't for the sauces or condiments, you never taste anything, can you actually taste the cheese?

Lol. I think we have very different methods Handle. I don't know the first thing about options. But you seem to make it work. It also seems you have a different time frame than me. I tend to stay in trades from a few days to several weeks and at times months. So I look at daily and weekly charts mostly. So I believe I catch more waves up or down than you. If the market is SUPER volatile it makes my system and indicators go crazy and difficult to trade. That's why I was completely in cash from late August 2015 to Jan 2016. It has been difficult trading for the last year for sure.

 

[Handle123]

Lol. I think we have very different methods Handle. I don't know the first thing about options. But you seem to make it work. It also seems you have a different time frame than me. I tend to stay in trades from a few days to several weeks and at times months. So I look at daily and weekly charts mostly. So I believe I catch more waves up or down than you. If the market is SUPER volatile it makes my system and indicators go crazy and difficult to trade. That's why I was completely in cash from late August 2015 to Jan 2016. It has been difficult trading for the last year for sure.

I agree, my method took years but is automated now and starts at yearly charts, then monthly, weekly, daily and finally intraday for precise entries in the futures and legs into spreads, so many in the beginning are hedges of just Long options as they have like 98% chance that futures position will lose for a few tries. Yea, it is a very different kind of method. Longest trade so far been over five years in Copper. I am just happy I been able to expand adding onto positions and use of options to hedge Open profits, so someone Pm'ed I throw away like $16k in ES from where I first shorted in May of last year till now, but I dumped half position for 2k and 4 separate times when price were making support at lows, altogether made more than what was lost on short positions. Trading is discovering patterns then make a pattern to trade them about the same ways every time, try not to become so bored out of your mind.

I agree when markets are too volatile, I can't day trade as I require controlled markets which has good volume. On the waves you catch, if deep enough where to taking what I would see as counter-trend, I might be feeding you the exit of your trades and I be getting into add on trades going into direction of what my system considers trend to be, while you making profits on the waves, I put on options to hedge Open profits on the futures, so in a way, I am doing nicely when you are doing nicely as well.

Am sorry you not done as well as you would like, perhaps check out how to trade options as a risk management tool. If it wasn't for options for my Long term trading, shoot, wow, I don't want to even imagine what I would not have.

 

[CBC]

I'm only intraday, so I can't really help with the upcomming direction of the ES.

The ES puts were priced quite well at the market close yesterday. I sometimes think that life is to easy XD

 

[Handle123]

Although a different market, principles the same of when to not take trades, when to exist a trade and hint when to take counter-trend trade.

 

[FreakofNature]

SPX weekly bar closed as a pin bar aka rejection of resistance.

Just a reaction or the beginning of a reversal?

Obviously no one has a clue, the next move is probably a fundamental one based on FOMC.

Roll the dice gentlemen or pay higher premium later

 

[FreakofNature]

Bought ES red futures as speculation.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Out of the June futures at 2088.25 and have entered Sep short at 2079.25.