ES Journal - 2016

Today the bears accomplished something they had not been able to accomplish since we bottomed back in February, previous weekly lows were taken in ES and YM.

A good bearish close would solidy the accomplishment ie no previous daily highs taken tomorrow (Friday).

The resistance is certainly pushing.

In mid april I posted a chart of where stops would be hunted to get bearish.

First chart attached.

Current situation is second chart attached.
 

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Looks very similar to last fall...The NDX breaking down this week (in hindsight obviously) was a very good indication of how this rally had weakened...The Nikkei collapse last night was just icing on the cake...

OTOH, and it's been mentioned frequently, the "bear phase" can be a bitch to trade because it has a completely different structure to the bull phase...It's not at all uncommon for the spike rallies to completely retrace previous downswings before it retraces the move entirely once again...Same thing we saw on many days last Jan-Feb...
 
der_kommissar said:
Looks very similar to last fall...The NDX breaking down this week (in hindsight obviously) was a very good indication of how this rally had weakened...The Nikkei collapse last night was just icing on the cake...

OTOH, and it's been mentioned frequently, the "bear phase" can be a bitch to trade because it has a completely different structure to the bull phase...It's not at all uncommon for the spike rallies to completely retrace previous downswings before it retraces the move entirely once again...Same thing we saw on many days last Jan-Feb...
More...

It's true, not an easy market to short, even when bearish.

My preferred method is to write calls and if possible, strictly on green daily days (higher premium).
 
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