it is a megaphone pattern
and i'm willing to bet $1 that today was the top in ES
So the question is will price come back down to your pattern and bounce up?
ES Journal - 2016
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
So the question is will price come back down to your pattern and bounce up?
Oil pulls back, ES balloon deflates, Globex Oil rises and ES balloon inflates.
One of you guys mentioned it earlier in this thread...Oil can de-couple from ES when it's convenient for the narrative...For instance, no mention of oils pullback from $42 to $35 a few weeks back and ES still was climbing higher...Likewise, dollar/yen has been used in the past as the "trigger" for ES moves higher, but then that fell apart earlier this year and there is no mention of it any longer...
Frankly, it appears that the panic button was hit in early February (and the collateral damage that low oil prices combined with a plunging global equity market could not be tolerated)...Now we have almost zero downside volatility and stair stepping market's higher, day after day, week after week...
that was my post on the decuple convenience, but there is certainly something there in regards to the equities being held up until more fundamental news comes out to favor higher prices. Why? that's what the Tarot cards are for? But hey, isn't higher priced oil good for the Dow? of course its good for the Dow. markets are forward thinking and maybe ES isn't going down because of the probability of higher oil prices? Seasonal or just Mideast crap or? Sure seems so, doesn't it? Orrr, maybe because there's a record number of shorts and they are deliberately keeping it up for new favorable news to blast the shorts into reversing, so we can get up towards 3000? So confused 
, Not! 
, Not!
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that was my post on the decuple convenience, but there is certainly something there in regards to the equities being held up until more fundamental news comes out to favor higher prices. Why? that's what the Tarot cards are for? But hey, isn't higher priced oil good for the Dow? of course its good for the Dow. markets are forward thinking and maybe ES isn't going down because of the probability of higher oil prices? Seasonal or just Mideast crap or? Sure seems so, doesn't it? Orrr, maybe because there's a record number of shorts and they are deliberately keeping it up for new favorable news to blast the shorts into reversing, so we can get up towards 3000? So confused
Spectre has posted some interesting theories on the topic...It certainly jives with what I've seen in these markets (especially when I'm up trading/observing them in the off hours)...i.e. there's an algo that simply absorbs any selling and then when the correlations kick in, the market is off and running...It's not just the slow,steady climb that we saw for most of last fall, this time around it's "panic buying"...see Mar 1, Mar 29, Apr 1 and any number of days in between...This is clearly well designed, as the "speed" of the market has an emotional impact on participants (even other algo's)...Some of these moves (in the microstructure) resemble FOMC days, even though they are nothing more than front run algo's in front of monthly flows (I suppose just about any form of real liquidity these days is sort of shocking)...
This seems to be results oriented buying...i.e. the system is too fragile for any run of the mill correction to take place...This isn't a novel idea, but has been tossed around the blogosphere for years now...I suppose that the combination of Aug 2015 with further confirmation in Jan-Feb of this year made it seem possible that prices might, just might (I don't know) "test" a .382 pullback or something as inconsequential in the bigger picture (heck oil was trading in the low 30's)...nope, not possible...no matter the earnings guidance, nor the macro picture, etc, etc...even with all of those stock buybacks, this thing is running on fumes, but the narrative requires an algo-driven march to higher high's...
That lines up with my last sentence. After all wouldn't the fed use this type of order entry system to keep the Market from selling off? With the record number of shorts in place, just waiting for that moment, that 1-2 punch to nock it down hard? Do you think the fed would allow such ah move like that at this time in the game? If you can imagine the largest set of brake pads to stop the economy, this would be it. We would go right back into a recession. Didn't you hear Mellon Jellon, the economy is still not strong enough, so we are not going to raise the interest rates yet. But lets not get distracted by this stuff. who cares what the fk their doing. this is just a soap opera distraction. Place your bets and role the dice. let the momentum be your guide. it will all work out in the end. Just be on the right side of momentum.
we had a red day 
I thought your short swing had gotten stopped, you letting a daytrade run or something?