Wait for price to test 200 day MA... Treat the daily as if you would the smaller time frames.
ES Journal - 2016
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Bloomberg has nice article on the shale companies implosion that is about to happen.. Till this time they have been pumping and operating. Indications are that it will lead to significant financial destruction of banks exposed to their bonds.
So expect a mother of all QEs.
Yep indications are that the FED has met with bank insiders to ask about exposure and not mark to market on the books.
A construct I'm looking at using game theory is, okay if the market goes up from now till FOMC meeting than FED statement won't be as dovish.
If the market panics again leading to FOMC, than the FED will refrain from raising rates and will issue dovish statement.
If open market operations are present than those operations will be pulled so that the FED can remain dovish and resume the day of the FOMC meeting.
What this implies is market should get hit before the ECB/FOMC/ NFP release. Today's data came out surprisingly strong. Which pulls the FED away from dovish stance. So the FED needs the market to get hit till FOMC. If they issue a tight statement than it puts pressure on high yield bonds and catalyze a collapse.
If the market panics again leading to FOMC, than the FED will refrain from raising rates and will issue dovish statement.
If open market operations are present than those operations will be pulled so that the FED can remain dovish and resume the day of the FOMC meeting.
What this implies is market should get hit before the ECB/FOMC/ NFP release. Today's data came out surprisingly strong. Which pulls the FED away from dovish stance. So the FED needs the market to get hit till FOMC. If they issue a tight statement than it puts pressure on high yield bonds and catalyze a collapse.
Basically, what you are saying it's 50/50.
Trading around the 50 day MA will lead both sides to battle. I think the 50 day MA gets collared.
That gap at 1860 is still un filled. 
Also, G20 meetings this Sat . IMF already pumping this " The Group of 20 nations must plan now for a coordinated stimulus program to keep a slowing global economy from stalling, International Monetary Fund staff said in a report on Wednesday."
More *free money!