ES Journal - 2016

romik said:
What if it shoots back up?
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for me I would look at getting back in. We are not at closing time though so it's hard to tell until then. If it shoots back up a lot during the day today, then the analysis may be different. If we close around here or lower, for me I would be out and look for new longs
 
Let price show you on shorter term timeframe what it implies it wants to do on longer term timeframe.. Basically we have a 'outside day' here and these occur at trend reversals. If the price is not showing you, than go enjoy the fresh air outside.

Best bet is wait till last few minutes of close. This will determine what it does for 2 days more. After FOMC nothing to prop market up. Fundies will head to beach houses for the summer.

FED needs to let market correct so clean bull market can start otherwise it just will be garbage and no conviction in holding garbage.

Also rate hikes are projected with all the strong reports coming out.
 
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recession2016 said:
i remember you calling for oil to break out of 60s and go to 80 before it collapsed

there's noise everywhere
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So let's just be grateful that we help one another :)

Regarding oil, if my memory serves me right I predicted a bounce out of 40s into 60s and potentially higher, which it did, but no follow through.
 
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I have no crystal ball. When I consider daily cycle to have run out of steam I will go short. There is no optimal exit that would suit every method & strategy. I trade my plan of action. Sometimes it will work in my favour, other times it won't.
 
Pretty annoyed with myself today. Was watching Draghi speak. He said no more interest rate cuts. That was the biggest signal to go short. Shoulda immediately exited my long (woulda made money on it) and reversed. Very dumb trading.
 
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