ES Journal - 2016

[dartmus]

I understand the ramp up now.. The algos used pattern recognition to do it.. In Paul Tudor Jones video he placed orders in 87 because of a similar chart analog.

What is an an analog?

3/4/16 High on ES daily chart stopped less than 1 tic away from it's 200 day SMA with a shooting star candle with the upper tail greater than 50% of the day's range.

5/19/2008 H stopped within 3 tics of the 200d sma with same SS candle with upper tail greater than 50% of the days range.

IMO it's a coincidence but ....I know many of u will find it quite interesting, so enjoy it if it's helpful.

 

[Spectre2007]

Even with all the analysis, it's important to use this simple rule. If price stays above the 50 day MA, only look for long setups. Look for short setups if price goes below 50 day MA. Wait for different timeframes to confirm. Before altering implied direction.

 

[dartmus]

Even with all the analysis, it's important to use this simple rule. If price stays above the 50 day MA, only look for long setups. Look for short setups if price goes below 50 day MA. Wait for different timeframes to confirm. Before altering implied direction.

I like that idea but I still don't understand what you meant by analog earlier. Can you clarify what analog means to you? Am I over thinking this or is it a concept worth looking into and what should I search for?

 

[Spectre2007]

chart analog.. is similar gross price pattern, the waveform structure is similar. In '87 PTJ was comparing the statistical probability of the patterns matching each other from the past, and it was astronomical, and it still played out as the pattern indicated. I think a lot more people are looking for it. So it might not be as valid as before.

 

[Spectre2007]

sell signal on micro price structure, BOJ Kuroda speaks tonight.

 

[Spectre2007]

Microstructure

 

[Spectre2007]

ECB move this week is expected to be 'priced for perfection', after this move, economists suggest they are done with policy changes. Markets have moved in anticipation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-killer-blow-in-11th-round-against-deflation

 

[Spectre2007]

'Tail' in DB ... Proxie of financial health, Barron's had article this weekend too.

 

[Spectre2007]

Risk appetite good still..

Bullish portfolio giving up some gains.

 

[Spectre2007]

The longer price fails to test the intermediate term highs, the higher the probability of intermediate term trend shift. We need test the highs otherwise sell side order flow will hit.