ES Journal - 2016
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Indeed...I was eyeing that as well...This 1944/1936 levels are also acting as short-term S/R
So why a 26 stop in your posted trade?
The chart reference points are pretty objective. That 1926 is purely from analysis of R:R off highs and lows of recent action. Intraday signal was a buy yesterday and topped out at 1956 from 1946.. A sell signal came through when price broke down. We bottomed out at chart point.
That R:R trade is reference trade, meaning it tests the R:R applied. That trade failed since projected 1966 was never reached. So we are here again. Long at 1946, SL 1926 TP 1966.
So 1946 is basically the pivot. Stay long above or short below it. Or wait for extremes in ATR for entries. At pivots where buys and sell signals come in, it implies this level is the consolidation zone.
My own opinion is that we trade 1700 to trigger a false bear market signal in SP 500. Everyone is screaming world wide recession. The dangers are present to take us to 1700. I don't think we will go much lower. After triggering fund reallocation out of equities, the market will proceed to go higher.
At the present moment price action is bullish, so most everyone should be long. NFLX is only few points away from 100. To flush out the longs price will head lower to trigger that false bear market signal.
At the present moment price action is bullish, so most everyone should be long. NFLX is only few points away from 100. To flush out the longs price will head lower to trigger that false bear market signal.
So reference trades are in line with price action, but for true trade placement only chart points matter to calculate SL or TPs.
To summarise price moves from level A towards level B, if there is sufficient interest there it moves back towards point A or in the absence of interest proceeds towards point C. The issue, as we know, comes from overshoots and that is a part of game plan that remains an unquantifiable variable. You can derive an average from past data, yet in future that will always remain a random event. So as @i960 has posted the other day, when shit happens and we get stopped out on a potentially sound trade, you gotta restart and be in it to win it.