I drew a fib there as well. if it has any meaning we're oversold here and due for a bounce.
ES Journal - 2015
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
The daily center BB and time working in our favor. I'm looking for some recovery as well.
I have found most fibs to be useless as TA indicators and I don't draw them. If you don't pull your targets, don't pull your stops since sometimes the market trends, and one day you will not be able to save your position, not saying it will not be this day or not. Economic reports right now are bearish. Price is agreeing. I don't hold long term positions long when you got 2 conflicting signals.
Looking at my ES chart, if I traded ES today I would have only traded short signals.
On CL, I went long but badly managed the trade to get a small profit. Problem was I chased my long, it went against me and I added to the trade. I then got scared and took 1st contract off 1 tick below BE and the 2nd contract 1 tick below it's original entry. I should have waited for a better entry lower and also, I once I was in this trade I should not have been moving down targets. Once I was out 1st contract, I did move stop up a little.
Looking at my ES chart, if I traded ES today I would have only traded short signals.
On CL, I went long but badly managed the trade to get a small profit. Problem was I chased my long, it went against me and I added to the trade. I then got scared and took 1st contract off 1 tick below BE and the 2nd contract 1 tick below it's original entry. I should have waited for a better entry lower and also, I once I was in this trade I should not have been moving down targets. Once I was out 1st contract, I did move stop up a little.
out here at 2072 for +3.5
Fibs work, its all in the measurements and money management. 7/20 the high was 2126, 7/06 the low was 2034. subtract and multiply by 61.8 and you get 56.85 rounded to 57 subtracted from the high on 7/20 2126-57 = todays low of 2069.
I will agree with you on one point that it's easier to be on the right side of the market.
There are a bunch of fib levels. In hindsight you can pick a point where price bounced off of and then say, yes it was a fib on some time frame. However, if you for example long on a different fib above that fib number and used a stop, you would have been stopped out.
Also, you can have a swing high draw fib levels where maybe you may want to go long, and then price keeps going lower. So I have never seen a system that relies on fibs achieve a higher probability of wins greater than 50% which you can get just be flipping a coin.
On the other hand of of thousands of indicators, there are a few that can tell you that price will for example continue to move down with a higher probability of success and/or increase your win% above 50 so that even if you were a shitty trader, you could have more winning trades then losing trades with equal risk vs reward. This means setting a stop and a target and not moving them.
Also, you can have a swing high draw fib levels where maybe you may want to go long, and then price keeps going lower. So I have never seen a system that relies on fibs achieve a higher probability of wins greater than 50% which you can get just be flipping a coin.
On the other hand of of thousands of indicators, there are a few that can tell you that price will for example continue to move down with a higher probability of success and/or increase your win% above 50 so that even if you were a shitty trader, you could have more winning trades then losing trades with equal risk vs reward. This means setting a stop and a target and not moving them.
Fibs work, its all in the measurements and money management. 7/20 the high was 2126, 7/06 the low was 2034. subtract and multiply by 61.8 and you get 56.85 rounded to 57 subtracted from the high on 7/20 2126-57 = todays low of 2069.
I draw fibs ONLY AFTER price has obviously made an excessive run into overbought or oversold. I emphasize "excessive" movement. I don't just draw them every time price breaks a LL or HH.
AGREED. Stops (and targets if used), should never be moved. Just let yourself get taken out--you can always get right back in once you re-analyze.