ES Journal - 2015

romik said:
Let's be fair here, catching those types of moves IS the objective. As I said previously, if I was to lock profits after 7 points have been reached, then that would result in a higher win rate (as there would be fewer losses) and the final result would not be that far of where it stands currently.
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kudos for riding that trade out, but regardless an outlier. on right side? i'll take it but i hate it. traders make consistent $ off 'probable', .a win on an 'impossible' trade makes real traders wince :)
 
romik said:
Sort of. Keeping average reward at least x3 average risk is the consistency factor, not so much the win rate. You don't really need to worry about compounding, as if one can generate on average 4 points per trading day risking 0.5% of capital per trade (average of 2.3 points) over the course of 250 trading days, then that would equate to growth of over 200% per annum.
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That is what I meant earlier. If you keep trading based on the total amount capital and keep the same rate of risk. Say, based on your calculation, starting with roughly 25K(0.5 % capital about 2.5 ES), by the end of year it would be growing into a capital of 75K, then at the same rate of winning and risk management (0.5% risk per trade), second year would be 225K, then 675K and 2mm (end of 4th year). You don't need to compound every month, just by compounding it yearly, it would be huge if you can pull it off consistently.
 
this is an amazing r:r. Is this swing trade or day trades?
romik said:
+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
-2
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-2.75
-3.25
-2
-4.75
+34.5
+7.75
-2.5
-2.5
-2
-3.5
-2.75
-2
--------+35.25

wins: 8 losses: 27
win rate: 0.22
average win: 12.4
average loss: 2.37
Average reward is x5.23 the average risk
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