ES Journal - 2015

[romik]

+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
-2
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-2.75
-3.25
-2
-4.75
+34.5
+7.75
-2.5
-2.5
-2
-3.5
-2.75
-2
--------+35.25

wins: 8 losses: 27
win rate: 0.22
average win: 12.4
average loss: 2.37
Average reward is x5.23 the average risk

 

[romik]

So the current win rate is 0.22, which is not hot by anyone's standards (yet profitable). So in an attempt to bump it up I will exercise more patience and only start to initiate trades once 4hr chart's RSI has registered an oversold condition. Only taking long trades as monthly and weekly charts are in an uptrend, once weekly turns I will become a seller. Once the current trade is closed I will be switching to September contract.

 

[jimmiebarton]

So the current win rate is 0.22, which is not hot by anyone's standards (yet profitable). So in an attempt to bump it up I will exercise more patience and only start to initiate trades once 4hr chart's RSI has registered an oversold condition. Only taking long trades as monthly and weekly charts are in an uptrend, once weekly turns I will become a seller. Once the current trade is closed I will be switching to September contract.

which is it weekly or monthly's? big diff there. your going to miss A LOT of pullbacks & pushups trading intraday off the monthly, but wish luck

 

[romik]

which is it weekly or monthly's? big diff there. your going to miss A LOT of pullbacks & pushups trading intraday off the monthly, but wish luck

Clarifying: Both weekly and monthly are in an uptrend, so trading only from the long side as soon as 240min chart displays oversold via RSI and entry will be taken from 10sec-60sec charts to decrease risk.

 

[jimmiebarton]

Clarifying: Both weekly and monthly are in an uptrend, so trading only from the long side as soon as 240min chart displays oversold via RSI and entry will be taken from 10sec-60sec charts to decrease risk.

what if weekly is up but monthly down now what? wait a few weeks for the turn?

 

[romik]

what if weekly is up but monthly down now what? wait a few weeks for the turn?

Ok, point taken, just weekly trend will qualify direction of trade.

 

[jl1575]

+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
-2
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-2.75
-3.25
-2
-4.75
+34.5
+7.75
-2.5
-2.5
-2
-3.5
-2.75
-2
--------+35.25

wins: 8 losses: 27
win rate: 0.22
average win: 12.4
average loss: 2.37
Average reward is x5.23 the average risk

So you demonstrated that cutting loser short and letting winner run can made a decent profit even with low win rate. I wonder how many contracts you put in for each trade, as sometime you need to hold the position over night.

 

[jimmiebarton]

Ok, point taken, just weekly trend will qualify direction of trade.

don't throw away your strategy and monthly's weekly's whatever on my account. i have no idea what your doing. i look at at daily's and below.

 

[romik]

So you demonstrated that cutting loser short and letting winner run can made a decent profit even with low win rate. I wonder how many contracts you put in for each trade, as sometime you need to hold the position over night.

Position sizing depends on capital and to trade conservatively one shouldn't risk more than 1%-2% of capital per 1 trade. I risk 0.5% on each trade, that way 10 consecutive losing trades would result in 5% reduction of capital.

 

[romik]

If I was to take profit as soon as it hits x3 average risk (trailing over x3 whenever possible), then the win rate would have been undoubtedly higher, I reckon around 0.3-0.4, instead of current 0.22, as mentioned previously if I grab what appears to be the bottom of an oscillation, then there is little sense in closing after x3 has been reached, the higher the price pulls away from the bottom though, the more strict I should be locking in profit once it's hitting x3, as the move reaches potential exhaustion.