ES Journal - 2015

+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
--------+31

wins: 6 losses: 12
win rate: 0.33
average win: 9.5
average loss: 2.1
Average reward is x4.52 the average risk
 
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romik said:
Stops & targets. If win rate is below 50% (always expected to be near 30%), then reward has to be no less than x3 the stop, which has to be outside current high/low of whatever time frame is being traded. Selling highs in downtrend and buying lows in uptrend (opposed to initiating a trade in middle of moves) may decrease win ratio, yet potential reward will ultimately be appropriate to offset losses. If required stop level increases risk to capital above 1%, then trade not to be taken. All this preferably RTH.
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@romik What do you mean by outside the CURRENT hi/lo of the timeframe being traded?

Say you are trading a 15 minute chart, what look back period do you use to identify the CURRENT hi/lo?

I note that with the recent trades that you are posting, your losses are around only 2.5 points which suggests to me you must be trading a really small time frame chart for the CURRENT hi/lo to be at or under 2.5 points if you are placing your stops behind this point - have I got this correct?

Thanks
 
steve2222 said:
@romik What do you mean by outside the CURRENT hi/lo of the timeframe being traded?

Say you are trading a 15 minute chart, what look back period do you use to identify the CURRENT hi/lo?

I note that with the recent trades that you are posting, your losses are around only 2.5 points which suggests to me you must be trading a really small time frame chart for the CURRENT hi/lo to be at or under 2.5 points if you are placing your stops behind this point - have I got this correct?

Thanks
More...

Yes correct, 1 minute charts and below. This is what I meant, obviously you can go left loads more to mark established support/resistance zones and see how price reacts to them. Whenever you take a trade and stop is within todays' range it's more likely to be triggered. I will do some more posting next week and later attach charts to explain my reasoning.

We are right on top of 20ma on weekly, so I will most likely be looking for long entries again.

Screenshot_2015-06-06-16-13-26~2~2.jpg
 
Last edited:
romik said:
+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
--------+31

wins: 6 losses: 12
win rate: 0.33
average win: 9.5
average loss: 2.1
Average reward is x4.52 the average risk
More...
congratulation on +31, but there something bothersome about all those frequent "small" losses. can't put my finger on it, but when volatility contracts your pretty much .dying a thousand cuts?
 
romik said:
I always said that I am not that good intraday, very very few are though IMO (referring to retail traders).
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most your stops ARE intraday!? stops define your TF. can say i'm not intraday but stopped intraday then i'm INTRADAY :eek:
 
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