ES Journal - 2015

All,

First off, a bit of disclosure… I do NOT make a living trading. I am an engineer and I love my job. My wife and I have a small child in the house, and I have scaled back the amount of time I am spending trading significantly. I do plan to return to form once the baby gets older, but I’m not in a rush. I’m not looking to be some sort of giant big swinging d*ck on the ES. I enjoy my level of involvement as it is, and I have no interest (at this time) in taking it further.

That being said, I made 310% trading the ES in 2013. I made just over 100% trading it in 2014. As of 2015, I am basically flat due to the fact that I have only been able to make live trades about once a week. I’ve had to flatten a lot of trades because my family needs me in the mornings, so overall I cannot make anything work consistently so it’s not worth mentioning.

I trade 1-3 contracts on the ES usually. I’ve dabbled with 6 but don’t do it regularly. I traded 20 contracts once and the trade didn’t even go a SINGLE tick in my favor. I was humbled pretty quickly on that one, lol.

I just wanted to share this with you so that nobody thinks I’m trying to come off as some sort of know-it-all monster in the ES. I’m just a small time guy that takes a bit here or there when I can. This trading guideline works for me, I’m sure it won’t work for many of you. For every guy that sees value in what I’m doing, I’m sure there are going to be 5 that think I’m talking out of my butt. Okay here goes:

1. Trading is between 6:38 and 8:45 a.m. PST.

a. All new entries should be taken within this time window. NOTHING EARLIER THAN 6:38.

b. It is OK to manage an existing trade past this time window, if the target requires it.

c. Never, ever, ever, ever EVER use Globex price action to trade RTH. NEVER.

2. Rules apply depending on the current day’s open:

a. Opening inside yesterday’s range:

i. Known as an “Inside Day”.

ii. You are NOT allowed to have a net long position above the current day’s open on an inside day.

iii. You are NOT allowed to have a net short position below the current day’s open on an inside day.

iv. The open is a magnet on an inside day.

v. Look for reversals at the range’s edge, as opposed to follow through.

3. Trade at important levels only

a. Previous day High / Low / Open / Close.

b. Pre-defined “flip” levels.

c. Open outside of yesterday’s range, expect an extension of the range away from the prior day.

d. If price opens outside of yesterday’s range, but settles back inside, look for opposite side of the range to be tested. For example breaking yesterday’s low, but then trading back above yesterday’s low. This is one of the most common catalysts for major reversals.

e. No trading on the Friday of futures contract rollover.

4. Entries are ALWAYS

a. Off of important predefined flip levels only.

b. In combination with a support / resistance flip on the smaller timeframe chart.

5. Sentiment

a. The first 3 minutes of market order flow is used to define a bias for the day

b. Is the high or low “weak”?

c. What did Monday look like, in direction / volatility?

d. Where is the weekly open? How about the low / high? Be aware of the levels and how it would affect the weekly chart if a week went from negative to positive, or vice versa.


I am a perma-bull. I trade long probably 90 to 95% of the time. Even when volatility goes bonkers, I will usually sit out the first couple of days of the meltdown, and then start looking for support and trying to catch wider range longs instead of selling short. I see long setups easier, and so I like to stick with what I’m good at.

I trade on the 512 tick chart almost exclusively. I will only zoom out if I cannot ID a level of support or resistance on the 512. Even then, I will only zoom out enough to see just enough price action to be able to mark a line in the sand, and then I zoom back in. I pick my longer term levels the same way that I enter on the smaller time frame. It is basically the same setup for both: (SEE ATTACHMENT)

If I had dumb my system down to the smallest amount of information possible, it would be this:

1. Never be long above the open, never be short below

2. Trade RTH only

3. Trade on price “flips”

4. Use the order flow from the first 3 minutes of the morning action to judge bias

I’ve gotten pretty good at watching order flow at the open to set my bias for the morning session. I’m sure I could just be imagining it, but I feel like I get really good information in those first few minutes, and it has been pretty reliable for me. I wish I could give specifics, but I don’t really have any. I’ve tried hard coding things to make this part easier on myself, but I haven’t had success doing it. There is only so much information being presented (Orders being added, orders being pulled, orders being executed), so I think there is something there. For now I just keep watching it and using my spidey sense… lol.

That’s most of it. Nearly everything else is just the repetition of watching the same window of time on the same instrument for years on end. I hope it helps!
I am not an engineer, but I truly love my job, some days more frustrating but hour later can't remember what I had for lunch. I was very much like you at the stage you are at, somewhere I lost thinking about "concept" of making comparisons to yesterday, pre-market, have made a ga-zillion back tests, comes down to 50/50 and walking away, where the money is whether based on your trading plan if trade should been entered at all, where price is when you want to enter, time-it price just sits there, price decays for me-am out usually in four minutes or less, I often trade the open based on S/R, but often on first waiting for others to trade on emotions and I just sweep up their mistakes. Certainly have to have rules and signals, but really comes down to "where is retail going to screw themselves", it is repeating cause takes long time before traders change, you always doing something opposite of what makes sense to me. Spock from Star Trek would lose his ass trading, little is logical and once you can handle the emotions of what is left is really right, up is down, inside is outside, then you have a great shot of sweeping when you want to work. Your chart reminds me a bit of Joe Ross, don't remember so well, don't think it was the 'hook", I don't know.

Good markets in evening at times in Crude Oil or Aussie or Yen. You hard enough, add another 1-2 contracts each month, eventually each week, account shows you to add or hold off on increasing, really don't take long to get it up there if you trading safe risk.

Well, Honey, I did report trade early, worked hard for couple minutes then slaved for an hour in ES, ahhh this coffee at Starbuck so good, have my legs up, finished same time in Crude Oil, life is good, now to figure out how to spend rest of the day. I can only watch Starbuck folks so long fiddle around doing what they do, Thank God I live in America being able to trade, Right?
 

Attachments

  • ES-APR-9-2015-.png
    ES-APR-9-2015-.png
    101.6 KB · Views: 117
OUT HERE AT 4365 FOR +6
I took another 5 trades after this one, but don't like being the only one posting calls so kept them to myself.
I was up 12 points, then took 2 losers of -5 each in a row leaving my up just 2 points on the day.
Then caught a good long for +10 putting me back to 12.
I'm often better off quitting for the day as soon as i'm up a 'respectable' amount.
 
Snack do you ever use the Heiken Ashi candlesticks on your tick charts? They're supposed to make trends easier to spot. I have on up on my 2-minute and it looks like it may help a bit.
 
Snack do you ever use the Heiken Ashi candlesticks on your tick charts? They're supposed to make trends easier to spot. I have on up on my 2-minute and it looks like it may help a bit.

Nope! My setup is so specific, and limited to a certain time of day, that I really don't need much to trade it. I usually take a peek and mark my levels about 10 minutes before the bell. I try and have 2-3 levels marked max. Since I'm almost always long, Usually I'm looking for a bounce point and a then a target. The only price I will ever scale out at is the open, and aside from that I'm holding the rest of the position to whatever price(s) I have marked.
After looking at the 512 for so long, a lot of decent trends have a "look" to them. Trends that are usually sustainable set up the same exact way, based on my always looking for prices that have flipped from support, to resistance, and then back to support.
 
I don't really try and catch trends per se. I'm pretty confident in the levels that I pick, so if I get the right setup at the levels I've marked, I'm in no matter what. If my entry turns into a trend, then GREAT! :)
 
I've been really hoping to catch a good "flip" setup around 64.50's. If it plays out, I'd be long from 64.50's to 84.75's and 91's.
 

Attachments

  • ES 06-15 (6400 Tick)  4_9_2015.png
    ES 06-15 (6400 Tick) 4_9_2015.png
    79.6 KB · Views: 66
Back
Top