ES Journal - 2015

Brianharvey said:
Out here at 4422 for +8.
Would you have taken a long there, @fortydraws ?
Was that area of interest to you or not.
cheers
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It may become one. If a lower limit is to be found up here, then 00-12.5 +/-2 is where I'd expect one to be. If the market opened right now, I would be looking more at 10.5 for a potential LL and 35 UL, but that's me. I also would not be surprised to see price test 78 +/- 2. I do not usually trade before the 9:30 EDT NYC open and have no plans, as yet, to do so today (for those parsing every fucking word - "usually" in this case should impart the meaning that I "rarely trade before, but would not say I never trade prior to the NYC open"). From a price action perspective, whenever price is moving in one direction and then tightens up and ranges without making further progress, then you know price is going to do one of two things - continue in the direction it came or reverse. One might want to identify what indicates one or the other is about to happen, and then make a plan for how to enter, where to place a stop, and how to take a profit.
 
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fortydraws said:
If the market opened right now, I would be looking more at 10.5 for a potential LL and 35 UL, but that's me.
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Well, it's not only me. The Foresight Thread And I would bet it's not only DbPhoenix and I: there is a whole world of traders out there who never set eyes nor keyboard to ET. The ones who make these levels significant are not winging it. They are not making random entries on a 2% bet and hoping one of those blind stabs eventually bails them out.

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By the opening bell, the traders who staff these workstations on this trading floor and at similar floors around the world will be ready to profit. Do you think they have been instructed in their Goldman Sachs training classes to wing it, and so long as they bet size correctly they will rule the world? I'm not saying, of course, that they deploy SLA (though I think it fair to say they are well aware of AMT and mean reversion). But whatever they use to plan and execute, you can bet that it is designed to track supply and demand for shares of stock.

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Who's going to win today - an army of triple screens armed with properly back tested trading plans or a guy with an iPhone in one hand & a donut in the other and not a clue in sight? This is why it behooves us to do the preparation for the day before the day begins.
 
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Brianharvey said:
I Might be looking for shorts soon.
Exit was good on my long.
I'm up over 1k today. mainly thanks to a dax trade again.
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I suspect you have no idea why you are up $1K today ("thanks to a Dax trade" would not be the answer I would look for, imo). "I might be looking for shorts soon" does not strike me as something someone with a real plan would say. "If price trades to 4435 +/- 2 and fails with a lower high I will go short with 5 point hard stop a 2-3 point scratch stop, a 5 point profit target on 1/2 and a target of 4410.5 +/- 2 on the remaining half" would sound better, imo.

Takes the guess work out. ;)
 
fortydraws said:
I suspect you have no idea why you are up $1K today ("thanks to a Dax trade" would not be the answer I would look for, imo). "I might be looking for shorts soon" does not strike me as something someone with a real plan would say. "If price trades to 4435 +/- 2 and fails with a lower high I will go short with 5 point hard stop a 2-3 point scratch stop, a 5 point profit target on 1/2 and a target of 4410.5 +/- 2 on the remaining half" would sound better, imo.

Takes the guess work out. ;)
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You need a retest of high and the confirmation of downtrend. What if the price keeps sliding down from here, or only bounces half way and resumes the downward movement?
 
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