ES Journal - 2015

[Michael.jstocks]

Next trade. I've identified a range 4370 to 4375
I'll let you know later on how I played it

shorted 70 and took profit at 65
Then went long at 75 - stop is in at b/e
All called ahead of time. Good on me!

 

[Ditch]

This is an excellent question.

On the one hand, I can see how these horizontal levels clearly make a difference, and its something that lots of trades see, hence this is a good place to take a trade. But what trade, I'm not sure. 40D makes it seem so easy, makes it seem like he is in and out fluidly, but I don't see any proof of this. Perhaps I'm hoping that more info will be provided to be honest, but I realize I gotta come up with the answers myself.

I guess I just want the truth, I'm searching for the truth, and the longer this goes on for, the closer we will get to an answer one way or the other. The longer it drags on for of course without anything tangible will I think make the truth quite obvious.

The truth is quite simple, daytrading pullbacks in trends and tests of S/R purely based on price info has no more than a very slight positive expectancy in the stock index futures. If you want to make a living out of this you need additional tools/info, that are more sophisticated than horizontal and diagonal lines.

 

[dbphoenix]

shorted 70 and took profit at 65
Then went long at 75 - stop is in at b/e
All called ahead of time. Good on me!

Indeed.

 

[Brianharvey]

L 4376
3point stop

 

[k p]

The truth is quite simple, daytrading pullbacks in trends and tests of S/R purely based on price info has no more than a very slight positive expectancy in the stock index futures. If you want to make a living out of this you need additional tools/info.

I'm curious to ask if you have a source for this info about a slight positive expectancy or is this something you have tested yourself?

Also, what additional tools/info are there other than price if you don't mind elaborating.

 

[dbphoenix]

L 4376
3point stop

This is not bad, as a 3pt stop would mean a violation of that last swing high, which theoretically would tell you something about the strength of the trend.

Of course, it's only a half hour till the NY close.

 

[fortydraws]

ESM at 2069.25 ... why does that seem like it should ring a bell?

 

[dbphoenix]

ESM at 2069.25 ... why does that seem like it should ring a bell?

So how much money did he lose this time?

 

[Ditch]

I'm curious to ask if you have a source for this info about a slight positive expectancy or is this something you have tested yourself?

Also, what additional tools/info are there other than price if you don't mind elaborating.

I tested it myself, the results were in line with numerous academic studies. I recall that somebody posted a link to an academic study in one of the numerous threads on this subject.

On the subject of other info: one the things you could look into is this: www.marketdelta.com

 

[dbphoenix]

L 4376
3point stop

Imagine pushing a car up a hill. That might help.