Virgins and volcanos.
ES Journal - 2015
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Virgins and volcanos.
Well they've all covered, now. I'm just trying to work out how they do it. A number of good traders I respect all take similar trades on the same stocks, and i'm trying to 'get in their' head to see what they see.
Specifically, why they all went long this morning about 20mins into the trading day at about 13.35 and covered at about 13.70.
Sometimes it's more obvious, like if a stock is all over the news in premarket and gaps huge for example. Not sure why they all chose ZIOP so early on, is all....
What they probably saw was what Wyckoff called a "hinge", and what pattern people call a "coil". The apex of this was about 13. Price rejected 13.12 at the open, so . . .
(The NQ, by the way, is doing the same thing)
"The market is the only gambling arena we know of where you have to bet while the actions is in progress." - Justin Mamis
Since this is undeniably true (and even more so in today's world of nearly 24 hour/day trading) it behooves the smart trader to learn to identify those places on the field (in the arena) where it is safest to bet, i.e. where risk of loss is small relative to potential for profit (in terms of probability, extent, or both). The places will be price levels identifiable well in advance of price's arrival (return) to these levels.
"Now what you would be looking for in these charts are significant market refrence points ... that causes traders's expectations to be raised about the possibility of something happening ... The most prominent of these significant reference points are previous highs and lows." Mark Douglas
Since this is undeniably true (and even more so in today's world of nearly 24 hour/day trading) it behooves the smart trader to learn to identify those places on the field (in the arena) where it is safest to bet, i.e. where risk of loss is small relative to potential for profit (in terms of probability, extent, or both). The places will be price levels identifiable well in advance of price's arrival (return) to these levels.
"Now what you would be looking for in these charts are significant market refrence points ... that causes traders's expectations to be raised about the possibility of something happening ... The most prominent of these significant reference points are previous highs and lows." Mark Douglas
thanks.
Yes, I can see that. I can also see lots of other reasons why one might have taken a long. A nice doji bar on the 2 min on the retrace. A possible breakout of teh doubletop on the hourly etc etc.
I'm just wondering what was special about that stock that it was 'in play'. Lots of people were clearly watching it early on. Maybe they all scan for such patterns and it 'came up' in the results list for lots of traders.
I don't know,
Usually stocks that are 'in play' and have daytraders all over it, have pre market news along with a big gap. Not the case in this instance, though
I guess I'll just carry on watching their stock picks and see if I can find a pattern as to why certain stocks are always chosen.
Keep in mind that a particular candle exists only in a particular bar interval. Change the interval and the candle disappears. What is more important is the price behavior that is creating the candle in the first place.
another upside reversal on the 1 minute. Do the 5 and 15 agree? The 5 does, but the 15 does not yet. Caution would be taken, but this one may have a little more leeway than the first one if you were of a mind to take this one. A break above 2069 cash would make it stronger. Cash rules futures.
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You might want to define "upside reversal" for us. Maybe a chart with some arrows, a circle, something.
--03/15/15 Sun Afterhours PM. Short 2039.00 basis June . Initial stop is 2076.00
--03/16/15 Mon Afterhours PM. Price is 2065.00 . Will maintain stop here RTH at 2076.00. If stopped, I will enter a new short order for 2047.00 RTH on a sell stop.
--03/17/15 Tues Afterhours AM. Will stop and reverse long at 2071.00 on a buy stop if we get there.
--03/17/15 Tues RTH. Lowering buy stop to exit and reverse long to 2069.25
--03/16/15 Mon Afterhours PM. Price is 2065.00 . Will maintain stop here RTH at 2076.00. If stopped, I will enter a new short order for 2047.00 RTH on a sell stop.
--03/17/15 Tues Afterhours AM. Will stop and reverse long at 2071.00 on a buy stop if we get there.
--03/17/15 Tues RTH. Lowering buy stop to exit and reverse long to 2069.25