ES Journal - 2015

[Laissez Faire]

Hi Laissez Faire.. dumb question.. but what time frame do you look at when you assess the point movements? Is it only from 12AM and on or from market open of the respective day? Thanks.

I only concern myself with the US equity session and pay little to no attention to overnight trading. That may or may not be stupid. I've observed that overnight highs and lows CAN be useful to pay attention to, but it's not a big part of the puzzle.

So, that would be 9:30 to 16:00, open to close.

Turns out it was a 19,25 point down move. It has now retraced 4 points. I'm not predicting anything (today), but that means I would be more comfortable putting on a short here than at the end a of a strong 20 point move.

20 point ranges seems to be common lately, so we may very well have put in the day high and low here.

Not in a position to predict today, so just thinking out loud.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

As most of you know though, my main focus is on prudent money management. I would prefer to be wrong with a small loss than be right more but using a large stop.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Well, we'll soon find ourselves diving more than 50 points. Perhaps you should brace yourself for worst to come.

A 50 point dive from here? On what basis do you predict that?

You seem to change your mind a lot anyway.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Intraday charts are long right now from here as mentioned in earlier posting

 

[Zodiac4u]

89.50 has been breached though. We'll need to see where this 4 hour bar ends

83/84 is the lower Bband on the 240.

 

[schizo]

A 50 point dive from here? On what basis do you predict that?

You seem to change your mind a lot anyway.

No, I don't expect 50 point drop today. But had you traded during the 2008-2010, you would know there were many days with 50+ range days, mostly down. Today's PA suggests that the market is about to change in that direction.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

DT UM long 2086.50 Initial stop 2082.50

 

[Buy1Sell2]

83/84 is the lower Bband on the 240.

Thanks. I don't really look at the Bottom Band though for trend reversal--I just this as an area where there should be support and perhaps an upturn. The real test I think is at 2064

 

[Laissez Faire]

No, I don't expect 50 point drop today. But had you traded during the 2008-2010, you would know there were many days with 50+ range days, mostly down. Today's PA suggests that the market is about to change in that direction.

In 2008-2010 we had a financial meltdown. Is that happening now? Did I miss any news? How does today's PA suggest that we will get 50+ range days mostly down?

The market is up like 250 points or so on this last major leg up. And people get emotional because we drop 20 points?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

--DT UM long 2086.50 Initial stop 2082.50
--Stop raised to 2084.75