ES Journal - 2014

iloveoptions said:
I'm happy that you made money on this trade. You did however risk 63 points for those 12 points you made! Do you think that's excessive? And at what price would you stop yourself out if this continued lower? Thanks.
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It's about probabilities and likelihood of events in my opinion (as opposed to r:r ratios)
Anyone can go through all of my calls and see what percentage that 63 points was of the amount that i've made in my posts. It was never a huge deal (dispite the amusing posts from others :))
I would have begun to change my mind when my fundamental bias and understanding of the way the markets are manipulated and their dynamics changed.
I would need to see certain evidence for that. Doubt it'll happen in my lifetime.
We go up over time. We Have too.
cheers
 
iloveoptions said:
I'm happy that you made money on this trade. You did however risk 63 points for those 12 points you made! Do you think that's excessive? And at what price would you stop yourself out if this continued lower? Thanks.
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What pinkman may not realize is that he's better off buying and holding for years. Which is obviously a great strategy when the market is continually making new highs. He's not a trader, which is perfectly fine - he doesn't get stopped out and buy back in when the market hits a local minimum. It's a very unsophisticated way to generate return, but it works in this market. Nothing wrong with that at all.
 
Right, I understand all that. However, the market doesn't have to wait for major fundamental changes before it in itself changes. And the changes can happen quite abruptly, no? Case in point, what just happened with your last trade. I mean let's be honest, you were not expecting a 63 point move against your long, otherwise, you wouldn't have taken it, right? And the next abrupt move against your position could go for 100-150 points, which is less than 10 percent off the highs, which would also keep the market in an uptrend, right? So to rephrase the question I asked previously, how far will you let a wrong move go against you without any fundamental changes to the market?? Please be frank. Thanks.
 
Mr. Bacon said:
What pinkman may not realize is that he's better off buying and holding for years. Which is obviously a great strategy when the market is continually making new highs. He's not a trader, which is perfectly fine - he doesn't get stopped out and buy back in when the market hits a local minimum. It's a very unsophisticated way to generate return, but it works in this market. Nothing wrong with that at all.
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Right, but If it wasn't for the numerous trades he's posting on a weekly and monthly basis, then the investor classification would be true. He's quiet in severe pullback though. So I'm not sure we can safely say that he's an investor, although his buy and hold (during big pullbacks) does in fact indicate that.
 
Not if he is consistently beating the index in his trading.


Mr. Bacon said:
What pinkman may not realize is that he's better off buying and holding for years. Which is obviously a great strategy when the market is continually making new highs. He's not a trader, which is perfectly fine - he doesn't get stopped out and buy back in when the market hits a local minimum. It's a very unsophisticated way to generate return, but it works in this market. Nothing wrong with that at all.
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iloveoptions said:
Right, but If it wasn't for the numerous trades he's posting on a weekly and monthly basis, then the investor classification would be true. He's quiet in severe pullback though. So I'm not sure we can safely say that he's an investor, although his buy and hold (during big pullbacks) does in fact indicate that.
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Perhaps depends on your definition of investor. I think he comes close. He is only long, doesn't use stops, gets very quiet during a pullback (nervous?).

As to if he's consistently beating ES/SPY on an annual basis, let's ask him... I'd much rather trade a few times as he does and beat the market than trade 10-40 times a week and beat the market.
 
Mr. Bacon said:
Perhaps depends on your definition of investor. I think he comes close. He is only long, doesn't use stops, gets very quiet during a pullback (nervous?).

As to if he's consistently beating ES/SPY on an annual basis, let's ask him... I'd much rather trade a few times as he does and beat the market than trade 10-40 times a week and beat the market.
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This sort of trading in something like the ES will make you broke in the long-run.

-burn8
 
burn8 said:
This sort of trading in something like the ES will make you broke in the long-run.

-burn8
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Absolutely, looks great in a bull or doji year, comes a bear year and it either wipes you out, or you don't perform due to using under-leverage.

For that, might as well, dump things in a 401k and get better tax benefits.
 
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