Can it be he has backtested his method well? I been averaging down for several years, but method I trade is not to make huge points as 99% of them is seeking 4-8 ticks on original move. I have some longer term methods but if they risk more than $500, am buying options to hedge. I have found that when I am in trades that take long time, I am in the hole and breakeven plus a tick is my best target. Only time I won't go for one tick is when DOME is showing that breakeven plus one can't be reached cause of the volume on bid/ask. My testing shows winning trades occur quickly and breakeven and losses take longer. So like when I test, say 10,000 sample size, I find the mean of winning trades in minutes, and use that time for getting targets and this time has gone by, now my target becomes the plus one works extremely well for me.
ES Journal - 2014
- Thread starter murica
- Start date
Can it be he has backtested his method well? I been averaging down for several years, but method I trade is not to make huge points as 99% of them is seeking 4-8 ticks on original move. I have some longer term methods but if they risk more than $500, am buying options to hedge. I have found that when I am in trades that take long time, I am in the hole and breakeven plus a tick is my best target. Only time I won't go for one tick is when DOME is showing that breakeven plus one can't be reached cause of the volume on bid/ask. My testing shows winning trades occur quickly and breakeven and losses take longer. So like when I test, say 10,000 sample size, I find the mean of winning trades in minutes, and use that time for getting targets and this time has gone by, now my target becomes the plus one works extremely well for me.
Not trading ES for the rest of today but establishing short positions for a longer term swing trade in my other accounts.
You have a valid point...
I rarely see some of these guys post their stops...
Question is what would he have done if the market hasn't bounced this morning. Does he have the discipline to take a sizable loss on a larger position due to avg down? Only he can answer that...
Lower highs... Next stop 55-56 imo.
who wanna try to catch the bottom...be my guest
Exit rest 3866.5 +20 good night gents
Looking back on a post from 4 years ago
The irony is when you got the balls (as we all did when we started) you lack the brains and when you get some brains you lack the balls
The good part is the more you learn, the more the puzzle pieces will fit together, the more logical everything will seem and the more confidence you will have, as your subconscious will know it is so.
But it is true that a trader with balls and a little knowledge to follow a simple system will do better (initially). Unfortunately some ask to many questions to take that path. :eek:
If you have sufficient knowledge and good R/R and positive expectancy then you are either trading with scared money or other reasons.
One thing I will mention is that if you have built up an image of yourself as a 'good trader' the reason you may hesitate to take a trade, that you have every reason should work, is that the ego does not want to be proved wrong, so it goes about creating uncertainties in order to protect you, but really its protecting itself. Better to be a right pussy than one who has put all their knowledge on the line and then proved wrong, as in you can't erase your PnL. This also shows in the need to grab some profit without waiting for your predetermined target or adjusting your stop.
I'm no psychologist, just my2c
Scaleout.Scalper
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Average down is not so bad, considering plenty have scars due to death by a thousand stops.
Choose your money management school, trade and let trade is my suggestion.
Trading, including and especially money management is a very personal matter.