ES Journal - 2014

[Soon2Bgreat]

Well since I bot via stoploss so high , it will gap down sunday.

Don't worry, I'm short way too much delta...we'll gap up Sunday.

 

[Zr1Trader]

I do expect each next trade to lose

don't know what to make of that; i take trades that i expect to win. why trade expected losers?

Because the math doesn't lie, if my winrate is less than 50% than I expect my next trade to be a loser by default. Yeah you can hope all you wan't but mathematically it doesn't turn out that way if your winrate is less than 50%.

On the other hand , If I have a winrate like Handle123 (very few losses) then I would expect my next trade to be a winner by default.

Difference being, when he loses, it's relatively large, when i lose it's relatively small. (compared to wins)

When I win it's relatively big, when he wins it's relatively small (compared to losses)

I don't want to clutter this thread so I won't comment further on my style here. Would prefer PM if you have any other ???

 

[CoolHandLuke]

Because the math doesn't lie, if my winrate is less than 50% than I expect my next trade to be a loser by default. Yeah you can hope all you wan't but mathematically it doesn't turn out that way if your winrate is less than 50%.

On the other hand , If I have a winrate like Handle123 (very few losses) then I would expect my next trade to be a winner by default.

Difference being, when he loses, it's relatively large, when i lose it's relatively small. (compared to wins)

When I win it's relatively big, when he wins it's relatively small (compared to losses)

I don't want to clutter this thread so I won't comment further on my style here. Would prefer PM if you have any other ???

You expect success with any individual trade (otherwise why take it there not someplace else?). However, you expect more losers than winners over a longer run.

You let your winners run, cut your losses very short.

I think I get you.

 

[Visaria]

Out of all my ES longs at 1948.5 .

Looking to short tomorrow. We'll see, bye for now.

 

[mastacoli71]

According to bloomberg headline article today 11% of SPY shares are held short saying good for bullish traders. Most bearish bets since 2012.

 

[wiesman02]

Congrats fellow shorts. We didn't get gaped up on this morning

 

[ammo]

http://i.imgur.com/YKbzt9s.png spx channel
http://i.imgur.com/rieZtnX.png if that again acts as res then these are the nearest supp's

 

[luken]

I guess he is going to get it after all that begging

 

[pinkman]

Cmon bulls!
Show me 2000 ES sooner rather than later!

 

[EsKiller]

While I have plenty of long positions in my retirement accounts, I will not be daytrading this market again until we have at least 1 bearish day. They have successfully killed the ES market for right now.

Edit: If ES rolls over today, that will suffice too but that's a longshot